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ISW: Ukraine will likely capture Kherson by end of 2022.

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Russian troops are preparing to defend the city of Kherson and are not fully withdrawing from the north of Kherson Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment. However, Ukraine’s Armed Forces may liberate Russian-occupright bank of the Dnieper, including Kherson, by the end of 2022 as Russia’s positions there are “likely untenable,” the think-tank said. According to a Russian military blogger cited by the ISW, “Russia’s surrender even of Kherson City is overdue, as an attempt to hold the city will likely result in defeat.”

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In the latest episode of Ukraine This Week, the Kyiv Independent’s Anna Belokur reports on another failed round of U.S.-Russia diplomacy over a controversial peace plan, as Moscow presses ahead on the battlefield and advances in and near Pokrovsk.

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Russia failed to break Ukraine’s army on the battlefield, and now it’s trying to do it through a peace plan that would cap Ukraine’s forces at 600,000. Some argue that Ukraine would shrink its army — currently estimated at about 800,000 — after the war anyway.

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