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The Crimean Bridge targeted on July 17 remains one of two ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting Russia’s southern force grouping. The other route passes through the occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest assessment.
"(The remaining) logistics route is now a single point of failure for the supply of the large numbers of mechanized Russian forces in southern Ukraine needed to resist Ukrainian counteroffensives," the ISW said.
Russian authorities accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a drone strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17.
Several explosions were reported by Russian media at around 3 a.m. local time, heavily damaging a section of the bridge level dedicated to road traffic. Repairs may take until November, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin predicted.
The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of conducting the strike in conjunction with American and British intelligence, "forwarding a consistent Russian narrative aimed at falsely portraying Russia as at war with the West rather than Ukraine," according to the ISW. Ukrainian authorities have not claimed responsibility for the attack.
The institute said that Russian logistics to southern Ukraine "will likely suffer in the short and medium-term," exacerbating recent and significant complaints about inadequate Russian supplies in southern Ukraine.