Georgia election results indicate possible manipulation, two US pollsters say

Two U.S. pollsters, commissioned by Georgian opposition forces, are questioning the official results of the Oct. 26 parliamentary election, which declared the ruling Georgian Dream party victorious. Opposition parties are organizing another protest next week to contest these results.

Edison Research, hired by the pro-opposition Formula TV, highlighted significant differences between its exit poll and the official count, suggesting "manipulation" of the vote. Another U.S. pollster, HarrisX, which conducted an exit poll for pro-opposition Mtavari Arkhi, described the official results as "statistically impossible," Reuters reported.

This election is critical for Georgia's future direction, with voters choosing between a pro-Western opposition advocating for European integration and the Georgian Dream party, which leans toward Moscow and faces accusations of authoritarianism.

Election observer groups like the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported incidents of ballot-stuffing, voter intimidation, and bribery, though they stopped short of declaring the election stolen. Russia has denied any interference.

Both Edison and HarrisX had projected a parliamentary majority for Georgia’s four main opposition parties. However, a separate exit poll from Georgian pollster GORBI, commissioned by pro-government Imedi TV, predicted Georgian Dream would win with 56% of the vote.

Thousands protested in Tbilisi after the election, with more demonstrations planned, while Georgia’s pro-Western president condemned the election as fraudulent.

Edison's exit poll suggested Georgian Dream took only 41% of the vote, 13 points below the official count of 54%.

"The 13-point difference between Edison’s estimate and the official result... cannot be explained by normal variation alone and suggests local-level manipulation of the vote," Edison's Executive Vice President Rob Farbman said in a statement.

Edison’s review found that the deviation from statistically expected results was widespread but most pronounced at specific polling locations in rural areas. In urban areas, Georgian Dream underperformed, while in rural areas, it reportedly achieved margins as high as 90%.

Georgian state prosecutors, under Western pressure, announced a probe into allegations of election falsification.

Opinion: Rigged elections have stolen Georgia’s European future

In Georgia’s 2012 election, then-President Mikheil Saakashvili’s pro-Western party was defeated by Georgian Dream, a party led by the Russian-backed oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Though widely hailed at the time as a democratic triumph, astute observers warned against celebrating. One such observer…

The Kyiv IndependentSalome Samadashvili