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Editor’s Note: This story has been updated with the latest news that F-16s have reportedly arrived in Ukraine
After a long wait, F-16 fighter jets have finally arrived in Ukraine, according to reports.
Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said the deadline for the delivery of the first batch of aircraft was the end of July, and the process had been plagued by delays and the language barrier.
Despite this, what it described as a "small" number had arrived in Ukraine before the deadline.
Kyiv is yet to confirm the reports.
The long wait for their arrival has been accompanied by much hype about what they will help Ukraine achieve in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion.
Even words like "game-changer" have been mentioned. So will they be?
The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon is an American multirole, air superiority fighter first introduced in 1978.
It has been the workhorse of more than two dozen air forces across the world for nearly 46 years.
Most advanced air forces – including Russia's – now employ much more advanced fighter jets, but for Ukraine, with its small fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29s, it’s still a significant upgrade.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Why are F-16s important for Ukraine?
While "game-changer" has been mentioned in some quarters, most professional opinion about F-16s has been more restrained, yet still ambitious.
Earlier this month, retired Polish brigadier general, Jaroslaw Kraszewski, said the arrival of the jets could help create the conditions for a Ukrainian counterattack.
This, he believes, could "dramatically change the situation" on the battlefield though he said it would unlikely amount to a turning point in Russia's full-scale war.
"I think a lot of positive things will happen for Ukraine then; the planes will create conditions for a counterattack," he said in an interview with Ukrinform published on July 9.
Kraszewski added that if Ukraine was also allowed to strike deep inside Russia with Western-supplied weapons – a step that Washington has so far refused to take – it could "cyclically and effectively" destroy Kremlin logistics.
"Ukrainian aviation should receive long-range missiles to destroy Russia's infrastructure, including airfields," he said.
"When this happens, the logistics of the Russian army will be cut off from the main forces. If this is done, Ukraine's army command should form a strike group and strike back."
Ukraine has already learned the hard way the costs of launching a counteroffensive without air superiority, and it was a major factor in the failure of last year's attempt to break through Russian lines.
Ukrainian officials have also been hyping the arrival of F-16s, with Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa, telling Reuters on July 5 they will challenge Russia's "full dominance" of the skies over the Black Sea.
"F-16s with the right armaments will be able to push away Russian warplanes. The northwestern part of the Black Sea, particularly the corridor for civilian ships, will be almost 100% secure," Neizhpapa said in the interview.
Experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said F-16s will be a boost to Ukraine but said it was correct not to view them as any sort of game-changer.
"First, they won't be the latest and most modern variants, and they are going into a high-threat environment, both from Russia's own aircraft and from longer-range ground-based air defenses," Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said.
"They are useful and give the Ukrainians some more options, but we should be cautious about them 'turning the tide' and how soon they will be operationally effective."
What will F-16s do?
The F-16s will likely have two main roles, experts said, one defensive and one offensive.
"Air defense is really, really important," Peter Layton, former Royal Australian Air Force officer and Associate Fellow at RUSI, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Looking at the big picture, the Ukrainian national air defense commanders might try to use the short-range guns – like the Gepard – to kill the Shaheds, use the F-16s to kill the cruise missiles, the older SAMs to kill the ballistic missiles, and the Patriots to kill the Kinzhals."
In an offensive role, Layton said F-16s could be used to replicate one of Russia's more successful military innovations used during the full-scale invasion – glide bombs.
Glide bombs are standard air-dropped bombs modified with fins and GPS guidance systems in order to be launched at a target from a distance rather directly overhead.
They're far from a new technology, dating back to World War II – minus the GPS – and being used in conflicts including Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Though primitive, they have been used to devastating effect by Russian forces in recent months, and have allowed Moscow's planes to launch huge amounts of explosives – some weigh 500 kilograms (1,100 lb) – from far away enough to stay out of range of Ukrainian air defenses.
"Against soldiers in trenches you really need large blast weapons," Layton said.
"The F-16s dropping (smaller U.S.-supplied small diameter bombs) will have limited effectiveness."
As a result, Layton says to expect Ukrainian forces to start deploying their own versions of the large glide bombs.
Using F-16s in this way would support Kraszewski's view outlined earlier.
"They could meaningfully help support a counteroffensive," Layton said, adding: "If they had large glide bombs, these could be used in pre-planned missions to literally blast openings in the Russian trench systems.
"A large blast weapon can blast openings but these are short-duration openings as troops recover quickly from the shock. Hence the pre-planned missions would need close timing coordination with Ukrainian soldiers’ ground offensive."
Ukraine is working on its own glide bombs – on June 9, Serhii Golubtsov, the chief of aviation of the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the first tests would be conducted "in a few weeks."
What about the Black Sea?
Operations over the Black Sea would be limited by the F-16's limited range, Layton said, and they would also need support from aircraft such as the two ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft donated by Sweden earlier this year.
Working together, they could feasibly hunt down Russian aircraft.
"It could be done," Layton said, adding: "But only to provide short duration air defense and with careful planning. Having said that, it would be worth doing a few times to push away the Russian bomber aircraft firing cruise missiles at Ukraine from the Black Sea."
Chris York
What won't the jets do?
One thing that could actually be a game-changer for Ukraine would be the destruction of Russian aircraft on or over Russian territory.
Being able to take out Russian fighter jets would prevent the dropping of glide bombs, while the taking out of Russian bombers would prevent the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
This has been the main argument of President Volodymyr Zelensky's calls to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
So far, that call has gone unheeded, so the other option for Ukraine would be to use F-16s to go after them instead.
Unfortunately, this is likely to be a non-starter.
"Using them in a straight air-to-air fight or flying against air defenses that haven't been suppressed would lead to them taking a lot of risks with scarce resources and pilots," Savill said.
"And as their training has been accelerated, it probably hasn't been as extensive as they would like. The Ukrainians will obviously factor that in, but don't expect them to be blasé about losses."
Savill said there is still the possibility that Ukraine could come up with novel ways to ambush Russian aircraft by "combining them with ground-launched missiles," but this would still only have a limited effect.
"The large bombers launching the largest and fastest cruise missiles do so from long distances, often over Russian territory, where it would be difficult for the F-16s to approach within sufficient range to launch at the Russian aircraft," he said.
How many F-16s will Ukraine get?
Ukraine is expected to receive at least 79 F-16s from the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway, with the deliveries to continue in the coming years.
Zelensky, as well as other Western leaders, have said this number is simply insufficient in the face of Russia's air power.
Ukraine needs at least 60 Western fighter jets to cover the length of the front line, but 100-120 such planes would be "optimal," presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Bloomberg in May 2024.
While the F-16s may not be a game-changer and will unlikely lead to the swift loss of hundreds of Russian aircraft, they are undoubtedly an improvement on what Ukraine currently has and could help incrementally push some aspects of the war in Kyiv's favor.
And then there's the hype itself which it's important not to underestimate.
"That is useful in itself," says Layton. "The presence of F-16s will improve troop morale and be a psychological boost for Ukraine's population.
"Also, they are a clear demonstration of external support."
