Exclusive: Ukraine whispers to Trump that Russia may not capture Donbas even in 2027

Kyiv privately told the Trump administration that Russia may be unable to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast even in 2027, according to a document seen by the Kyiv Independent.

The assessment comes as Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk Oblast as part of the U.S.-led peace process.

Kyiv is instead arguing that Russia's battlefield gains have slowed so sharply that Moscow may struggle to achieve its territorial goals through force.

Ukraine still controls 21% to 22% of Donetsk Oblast, meaning slightly more than one-fifth of the region remains outside Russian control.

The document, handed to the Trump administration by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, says Russia's territorial advances have slowed to less than 100 square kilometers (around 40 square miles) per month. At that pace, the document says, Moscow's stated objectives in Donetsk Oblast could be pushed "potentially" beyond 2027.

That assessment challenges one of the Kremlin's arguments in the peace process: that Ukraine should give up territory because Russia will eventually take it by force anyway.

Moscow wants Donetsk without fighting for it

Russia has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from Donbas, which includes the partially occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as a key condition for peace.

Moscow is effectively demanding that Kyiv surrender territory that Russian forces have failed to capture militarily.

Russian officials have increased pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the withdrawal, presenting it as a step that could clear the way for negotiations.

Kyiv has rejected the demand and instead proposed a ceasefire along the existing front lines as the first step toward a broader peace agreement.

The Ukrainian assessment shared with Washington appears intended to strengthen that position by challenging the assumption that Russia's military campaign will inevitably deliver the territory Moscow wants.

The Kremlin has already missed several of its own deadlines for taking the region.

Moscow previously aimed to capture Donetsk Oblast and the rest of Donbas by the end of 2025 and reportedly communicated those intentions to U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite sustained offensives, Russian forces have failed to make a breakthrough.

The Ukrainian document argues that the problem is becoming even more pronounced as Russian advances slow.

A White House official has confirmed that the Trump administration had received the Ukrainian assessment.

"The president has a humanitarian heart and wants this war settled so the senseless killing ends," the official told the Kyiv Independent.

"The president and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we'll ultimately get a peace deal done."

Kyiv also warns of another Russian mobilization

The battlefield assessment in the document carries a warning for Washington: Russia may try to compensate for its difficulties by launching a much larger recruitment campaign.

The document says Moscow is considering mobilizing up to 500,000 additional personnel after September.

That warning comes as Ukrainian officials have repeatedly raised concerns this summer that Russia is preparing for another wave of mobilization.

Zelensky said on Aug. 11 that Ukraine had evidence that Moscow plans to launch a full mobilization after Russia's parliamentary elections next month.

Ukrainian officials have warned that the Kremlin is struggling to recruit enough soldiers through its existing system of financial incentives and contracts, while Russian casualties continue to climb.

The document says Russia suffered record losses in July, including approximately 14,000 military vehicles and 42,800 personnel casualties.

Pressure on Russia, Patriot shortages

The assessment also details Ukraine's campaign to raise the cost of Russia's war effort. In recent months, Kyiv has intensified attacks against Russian military infrastructure, logistics hubs, and strategic targets deep inside Russia.

The document says strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have reduced the country's refining capacity by more than 30%, with estimated losses of approximately $15 billion.

Ukraine has also targeted approximately 200 vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, according to the document.

Those attacks form part of what Kyiv sees as a broader effort to pressure Moscow into reconsidering its approach to the peace process.

The document also highlights what may be Kyiv's most immediate battlefield vulnerability: its dwindling supply of Patriot interceptor missiles.

It says that on Aug. 5, Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles at Ukraine, and none were intercepted amid the depletion of Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptor stocks.

Patriot systems remain crucial to Ukraine's defense against Russian ballistic missiles, which are among the most difficult weapons for Ukrainian air defenses to stop.

"The Embassy regularly informs the U.S. administration about the implementation of measures approved by the Ukrainian president, as well as about the priority needs for the country's defense," a diplomatic source told the Kyiv Independent.

"The Embassy has provided the U.S. administration with information on the progress of the campaign approved by the president regarding attacks on Russia's targets."