Belarus expands military infrastructure near Ukraine, may host Russian Oreshnik ballistic missiles
Belarus has significantly expanded military infrastructure near the Ukrainian border since 2022, raising concerns about Russian missile deployment and growing regional militarization, an investigation by Schemes (RFE/RL) has found.
An analysis of dozens of Planet Labs satellite images reveals accelerated construction across Belarus and the rebuilding of several military sites, one of which may be intended to host the Russian Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM).
The timeline of developments begins shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Belarus rapidly deepened its military cooperation with Moscow and allowed its territory to be used by Russia's invading forces.
Satellite photos from 2023 and 2024 revealed extensive construction efforts across Belarus, including the two new southern complexes.
One site south of Minsk is being rebuilt on the grounds of a former Soviet missile base, and analysts believe it could house Oreshnik.
The second is located near Homel, just 30 kilometers from Ukraine. Images show land clearance, new roads, and foundations for military infrastructure alongside a planned training ground.
These developments could increase the risk of Belarus becoming a staging ground for Russian forces, shrinking the buffer zone between Ukraine and potential missile launch sites to only a few dozen kilometers.
The new facilities are expected to play a role in Zapad-2025, large-scale joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises scheduled for September 12–16, which observers see as both a training event and a show of force.
