Ukraine's economy grows year-on-year for first time since start of full-scale invasion

Ukraine’s gross domestic product grew by 19.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, signaling the economy’s successful adaptation to wartime conditions following last year’s collapse.

The result is higher than the Economy Ministry's forecasted results and "indicates that the economy is adapting to the war," Economy Minister Yuliya Svyridenko said in a statement published online.

"Importantly, the vast majority of economic activities demonstrated positive trends," she said.

Actual GDP growth compared to the previous quarter of this year equates to 0.8%, adjusted for seasonal factors.

Russia's war against Ukraine has significantly impacted Ukraine’s economy, with peak GDP contraction of 37.2% year-on-year recorded in the second quarter of last year. In total, Ukraine’s GDP declined by an alarming 29.6% last year.

The boost in GDP in the second quarter of this year is due to an increase in domestic demand, as well as the adaptability of Ukraine's businesses and the government's response, international trade, and outside assistance.

“The restoration of domestic demand was facilitated by the continuation of production adjustment, including thanks to business support programs from the budget, and work on the restoration of production facilities and infrastructure facilities financed from the budget and funds provided by international partners,” the Economy Ministry stated.

International aid this year bolstered the state budget by $31 billion, the ministry said.

Overall, the ministry is more positive about Ukraine’s economic development and earlier this month increased its forecast of GDP growth to 4% by the end of 2023, 3.5% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025.

Other predictions are more conservative but are still an improvement compared to the start of the year. The NBU revised its forecast in July to 2.9% GDP growth this year, up from 2% previously, although it downgraded next year’s estimate by 0.8% to 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the ratings agency Fitch Ratings predicts GDP growth will amount to 3.5% in 2023 and 4% next year.

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk