As Russian troops continued to hold an advantage on the ground, Ukraine has been keen to level the power in the air.
In 2024, Ukrainian forces bet on drones, hitting targets thousands of kilometers deep inside Russia.
Ukrainian attacks have targeted dozens of oil refineries that aid Russia's war efforts, arms depots, weapon production plants, as well as military airfields harboring Moscow's air force.
Strikes deep inside Russia would not stop the war but are said to have slowed down Russian advance, hindered logistics, and pushed arms depots further east.
"Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicles can hypothetically operate up to 2,000 kilometers"
"From what we can tell — it's no longer a secret — Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicles can hypothetically operate up to 2,000 kilometers," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Dec. 27.
Quantity over quality
For Ukraine, 2024 was a breakthrough year in the deployment of long-range drones.
In late September, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that Ukrainian forces had destroyed or damaged over 200 military facilities in Russia using "drone swarm" technology. Both Ukraine and Russia use this technology, which involves launching dozens, sometimes hundreds of drones at once, to overpower air defenses, usually in waves.
Russia's outdated air defense systems, which are mainly designed to protect against large targets such as missiles or aircraft, do not always identify drones. Ukraine, producing long-range drones from scratch, managed to create thousands of them within a year.
Ukrainian officials don't publicly confirm drone attacks, with the approximate number of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched can only be estimated based on Russian reports, local independent media, or social media.
According to Russian reports, Ukraine's largest drone attack on Russia took place on Sept. 1. Russian authorities claimed to have shot down 158 drones over 16 oblasts, including Moscow. The attack caused a fire at Gazpromneft's refinery in Moscow's Kapotnya district, after which the plant shut down half of its capacity, according to Reuters.
Power plants in Moscow and Tver oblasts were also targeted, and a gas distribution network in Tver Oblast's Konakovo was damaged.
The second largest attack on record took place on Sept. 10, when Russian officials claimed that Russian air defense shot down 144 drones. The highest number of drones, 72, was reportedly downed over Bryansk Oblast, followed by Moscow Oblast (20) and Kursk Oblast (14).
Moscow Oblast Governor Andrey Vorobyov said the drone's debris had fallen on residential buildings. In the town of Ramenskoye, located 46 kilometers (28 miles) southeast of Moscow, a 46-year-old woman was killed, and three people were injured.
The September attacks showed how vulnerable Russian air defense is, as it cannot cover not only most of Russia's territory but also the area around its capital, Moscow.
Mattias Eken, a defense and security expert at RAND Europe, told the Kyiv Independent that Russia will likely need to upgrade its radar technology to counter the increasing presence of small, cost-effective drones. This technology integrates optical and acoustic detection systems to detect drones reliably at long ranges, and the upgrade could take years, according to the expert.
In the meantime, Russia is trying to defend its skies by increasing the number of mobile fire groups, among other methods. Ukraine has already proven that this step would also require large resources, given the long-range capabilities of its drones.
Thousand-kilometer range
Ukrainian drones are much cheaper than missiles in production but have an equally impressive range. According to Umerov, Ukraine has increased its long-range military capabilities "several times" this year.
In April, Ukraine, for the first time, hit a target 1,300 kilometers (807 miles) from its state border.
A Ukrainian long-range drone targeted one of Russia's largest oil refineries, located in the city of Nizhnekamsk in Russia's Tatarstan. The attack on Tatarstan also hit a manufacturing facility for Shahed-type attack drones at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in the Yelabuga district.
A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that the drone hit the refinery's primary oil refining facility with an annual production capacity of around 8 million tons, amounting to 2.6% of Russia's yearly oil-processing capacity.
In July, a Ukrainian drone set a new long-range record by striking the Olenya military airfield in Russia's Murmansk Oblast and damaging a Tu-22M3 bomber. The target was located 1,800 kilometers (1,118 miles) from the border.
"This (Tu-22M3 bomber) is something that only the Soviet Union could produce, and that is why they are trying to hide them so far away," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson, Andrii Yusov, said on national television on July 29.
Long-range attacks forced Russia to relocate its aircraft, affecting the strategic planning of its future strikes on Ukraine. So far, Russia has moved 90% of its aircraft used to attack Ukraine over 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border following the negotiations to allow long-range strike using U.S.-provided missiles deep into Russia.
Yet, many Russian military facilities are immobile and thus are open targets for Ukrainian drones.
Explosive storages
Among the prized targets for Ukraine were Russian arms depots, storing weapons delivered to the front lines.
Without direct access to the destroyed depots, it is difficult to calculate the scale of the destruction. In September, Ukrainian drones set ablaze at least 30,000 tons of ammunition, which allegedly included ballistic missiles.
The depot in Toropets in Russia's Tver Oblast was supposed to withstand a nuclear strike, as promised by the Russian authorities, but it failed to cope with Ukraine-produced drones.
The attack "literally wiped off the face of the earth a large warehouse of the main missile and artillery department of the Russian Defense Ministry," a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent.
The attack "literally wiped off the face of the earth a large warehouse of the main missile and artillery department of the Russian Defense Ministry."
Meanwhile, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its intelligence report that strikes on Toropets and later on the depot in the town of Tikhoretsk destroyed a tonnage that is considered Russian "largest loss of ammunition" during its all-out war against Ukraine.
Experts with whom the Kyiv Independent spoke said that even minor damage to warehouses, which may not be visible on satellite images, could lead to significant complications in Russia's logistics operations.
"If you launch 10 strikes with drones, and then the facility can't unload or store new munitions for five hours, six hours, or eight hours, by itself, it is a major effect because that facility isn't working for a day. It might not have damaged anything, but it's still going to have a battlefield impact because those munitions aren't going to reach the front line," Michael Bohnert, a licensed engineer at RAND research organization, told the Kyiv Independent.
Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), added that more substantial losses, such as a month's worth of costly weapons, could slow down the pace of Russian troop advancement at the front line, as well as decrease the fire volume on Ukrainian soldiers.
Kateryna Hodunova
Russian oil on fire
Energy exports have long been a key source of Moscow's revenue and have helped to sustain its ongoing war against Ukraine. Yet, the Russian oil industry has suffered the most from recent Ukrainian attacks, which have led to disruptions in production and a sharp rise in fuel prices in Russia.
In late April, the cost of diesel went up almost 10%, while gasoline prices hit a six-month high, going up by more than 20% when compared to the start of the year, Politico reported. In the meantime, Russian gas giant Gazprom suffered net losses from January to June 2024, almost double those in the same period last year, according to its financial statements.
In the wake of the attacks, many refineries also have been forced to suspend production. The Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries caused the output to fall by around 17%, according to NATO July calculations.
In August, a Ukrainian strike on the Kavkaz oil refinery outside Proletarsk, a town in Russia's Rostov Oblast, sparked a fire that lasted over two weeks. The fire spread to a petroleum storage facility, making it extremely difficult to extinguish. The Russian authorities did not report the scale of the damage, but satellite imagery showed that the area affected was extensive.
According to Reuters, as of November, at least three Russian oil refineries—Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk — had been forced to halt or scale back production due to significant losses and faced the risk of closure.
Under regular Ukrainian attacks and pressure from Western sanctions, the Russian oil industry is finding new ways to continue its exports, including investing in the so-called "shadow fleet." Meanwhile, Ukraine's Western partners have not yet found effective countermeasures, and Ukrainian attacks have not been able to completely derail Russia's oil production.
What is next?
Ukraine can produce at least 4 million drones a year, and more than 1.5 million have already been contracted, Zelensky said at the second International Defense Industries Forum in October.
The Ukrainian army is not only approaching 2025 with a commitment to increase drone production. Ukraine is also looking to ramp up missile production amid a possible decline in arms supplies from Western partners, particularly the U.S.
Zelensky has called for investment in Ukraine's defense industry to keep production high.
"Thanks to the defense industry, Ukraine will become one of the key global security contributors and a very strong player in the global arms and defense technology market. Everyone who is with us, who is with Ukraine, I am sure, will benefit," Zelensky added.
The domestically produced missiles could be a potential game changer for Ukraine's attacks deep into Russia, especially since Kyiv will not have to rely solely on its allies.
Yet, in the new year, the Ukrainian army will continue to face another, more dangerous threat — the Russian grinding advance on the front line. And Ukraine still does not have enough missiles and drones to halt Russia's push north, east, and south.
