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Ceasefire likely in 2025, Ukraine's spy chief says

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Ceasefire likely in 2025, Ukraine's spy chief says
Ukraine's military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov attends the final of the largest student competition "Side by Side All-Ukrainian School Leagues" in Kyiv. (Kyrylo Chubotin/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Ukrainian military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov believes that Ukraine and Russia will reach a ceasefire this year, he said in an interview with Azerbaijani journalist Eynulla Fatullayev published on Feb. 18.

Budanov described the situation as "paradoxical" since the positions of Kyiv and Moscow are drastically opposite.

"At the same time, I think we will reach a ceasefire this year," Budanov said.

"How long it will be, how effective it will be, is another question. But I think it will happen. Most of the components needed for this to happen are there."

U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed to mediate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia while using increasingly hostile rhetoric toward Kyiv. A day before dubbing President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator," he accused Ukraine on Feb. 19 of starting the war.

This was preceded by a meeting of the American and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18 and a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which took place before Trump's call with Zelensky.

No concrete decisions were announced following the U.S.-Russia talks, but Ukraine's exclusion from the meeting sparked alarm in Kyiv and Europe.

According to the spy chief, while the NATO membership issue remains "very complicated,” there is no other relevant format for security guarantees. He also questioned the effectiveness of deploying a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, saying that such a step has never met expectations in other war-torn countries.

Previously, Zelensky said that European partners would need to station 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine to effectively deter Russia. The U.K. and France are considering deploying a much smaller European-led peacekeeping force with up to 30,000 soldiers, the Telegraph reported.

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Kateryna Denisova

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Kateryna Denisova is a reporter at the Kyiv Independent, covering Ukrainian domestic politics and social issues. She joined the newsroom in 2024 as a news editor following four years at the NV media outlet. Kateryna holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. She was also a fellow at journalism schools in the Czech Republic and Germany.

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