Key Ukraine Events (6-12 July): Zelensky at NATO summit, European Parliament plenary

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NATO's Ankara summit dominates the agenda next week. In Brussels, MEPs debate Ukraine and Moldova's EU accession progress report as the Eurogroup convenes. Moscow's June inflation figures will feed into the central bank's next rate decision. In Washington, the bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act awaits a possible Senate vote before the August recess.

NATO Ankara summit

The NATO summit in Turkey on 7-8 July will dominate Ukraine's political agenda next week. President Volodymyr Zelensky was invited to attend in May.

The key expectations are bilateral meetings between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump, European leaders. The gathering comes amid continued uncertainty over US-NATO relations and lingering tensions with several European allies following the recent E3 meeting. Kyiv also faces unresolved strains with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, while Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has voiced opposition to NATO's plans for large-scale financial and military support for Ukraine.

Trump has repeatedly pledged to do everything possible to end the war. His recent rhetoric has been perceived in Kyiv as increasingly critical of Moscow over its failure to uphold previous commitments.

Attention will also focus on the possibility of a meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine has asked Turkey to help facilitate such talks, and any developments during the summit will be closely watched.

Against this backdrop, speculation is growing in Kyiv that negotiations could gain momentum and that moves to reduce or contain fighting could intensify in the coming weeks.

On 7 July, the opening day of the summit, NATO will host the Summit Defense Industry Forum 2026, its premier high-level event on transatlantic defense production, investment, and innovation.

European Parliament plenary

The European Parliament plenary session will take place on 6-9 July. On 7 July, MEPs are scheduled to debate and vote on Ukraine's and Moldova's progress report toward EU membership.

Following the opening of the first negotiating cluster in June, the remaining five are expected to open in the coming months, with 14 July informally discussed as a possible target date.

However, there is growing skepticism that all five clusters will be opened in July. Hungary remains the main obstacle, as Prime Minister Peter Magyar opposes accelerating Ukraine's EU accession process.

Eurogroup and EU loan disbursement

The Eurogroup will meet on 9 July, with discussions expected to focus on the euro area's economic outlook, including its fiscal stance, and the adoption of a statement on the euro area's fiscal policy for 2027.

Russia's inflation report

On 8 July, Russia's state statistics agency, Rosstat, is expected to publish its June inflation report. According to Rosstat's weekly data through 22 June, consumer prices had already risen by 0.63% since the start of the month, suggesting that June inflation is likely to exceed May's reading.

For context, annual inflation has slowed for two consecutive months, prompting the Russian central bank to continue cutting its key interest rate (14,25% in June). June's inflation data will be one of the key indicators policymakers consider ahead of the bank's next rate decision on 24 July.

Despite the recent cooling of inflation in Russia, it is likely that the surge in the price of petrol (and other fuel products) because of the recent spate of successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries will lead to an uptick in price inflation. Average petrol prices rose 3% in the week of 16-22 June alone (the largest weekly jump in at least 20 years), followed by a further 1.6% rise the week after.

US Sanctioning Russia Act

Movement is expected in July on the bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act, sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal. The bill would give the US president broad authority to impose sweeping sanctions on Russia and countries purchasing Russian energy, including tariffs of up to 500% and additional financial restrictions.

With broad bipartisan backing in the Senate, attention is now focused on whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune schedules the bill for a vote before the chamber's August recess. A final vote is more likely later in July.

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Events and Milestones:

Next week:

• 6-12 July, Berlin. Offline event: Berlin Defense Tech Week. The event will bring together European defense technology developers, investors, industry leaders, and policymakers to discuss innovations in autonomous systems, counter-drone technologies, and infrastructure protection. Read more here.
• 7-8 July, Ankara. Offline event: Allies in Ankara. Official Event Hub for the 2026 NATO Summit, co-hosted by the Munich Security Conference and the SETA Foundation. Read more here.
• 8 July. The second anniversary of the Russian missile strike on Kyiv's Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital.
• 10 July. Day of Remembrance of Fallen Healthcare Workers in Ukraine.

Further ahead:

• 14 July. Webinar: How should Ukraine prepare for peace while fighting the war? Organized by Chatham House, the event will explore how Ukraine can safeguard democracy during the war and prepare for free and fair post-war elections. Register here.
• 16 July, online, in Ukrainian. The Center for Economic Strategy will present its updated review of Ukraine's 2026 macroeconomic forecasts, featuring projections from government and independent experts. Register here.
• 24 July, Kyiv, in Ukrainian. Offline event: 6th Energy Law Conference. The event will bring together legal and energy professionals for a practical discussion on the transformation of Ukraine's energy sector and the legal tools businesses need to operate, invest, and protect their interests. Register here.
• 13-15 October, Kyiv. "5E" International Energy Business Forum. The exhibitions unite leading energy companies, manufacturers, startups, industry experts, and government representatives to showcase technologies, discuss market trends, and drive innovation in the power, oil and gas, and mining sectors. Read more here.