Key Ukraine Events (11–17 May): Victory Day ceasefire fallout, EU ministers on Ukraine, Magyar takes office in Budapest

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Russia's Victory Day ceasefire expires as peace talks remain frozen and Umerov navigates Mindichgate while holding preliminary negotiations in Miami. EU foreign and defense ministers meet back-to-back in Brussels on 11–12 May, alongside a formal launch of the war victims compensation mechanism. In Budapest, Hungary's new prime minister takes office, raising cautious expectations of progress on Ukraine's EU accession.

Victory Day Ceasefire Results

The unilateral ceasefire announced by Moscow is set to begin at midnight tonight, and its outcome could shape developments in the coming week. Moscow expects large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks and has threatened strikes on Kyiv if the ceasefire is not upheld. Signals from Kyiv suggest Ukraine has no intention to observe the ceasefire.

At the same time, Russia itself violated the ceasefire proposed by President Zelensky, which was set to begin on 6 May.

Russia is preparing for celebrations of the so-called Victory Day in the Great Patriotic War, which this year will take place on a smaller scale due to the threat of Ukrainian attacks. Russian authorities claimed that today, ahead of 9 May, Ukraine launched dozens of drones toward Moscow.

International attendance is also expected to shrink. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who is considered close to the Kremlin, will not attend the parade in Moscow, although he has not canceled his visit entirely. He stated that he intends to use the trip to "convey messages from the Ukrainian president" to Putin. Zelensky also warned foreign representatives that Ukraine "doesn't recommend" attending the parade.

Peace Talks Prospects

Prospects for renewed peace negotiations remain uncertain. In the coming days, developments may also hinge on Iran's decision regarding a potential peace deal with the United States. An end to the conflict that has dominated President Donald Trump's attention in recent weeks could bring Ukraine back to the forefront of the US foreign policy agenda.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov held talks with US representatives in Miami on 7 May. The talks focused primarily on humanitarian issues, including the continuation of prisoner-of-war exchanges. Following the meeting, Kyiv expects a visit by the US President's representatives around the turn of spring to summer. A previously planned April visit by US envoys Witkoff and Kushner did not take place.

What does Mindichgate Mean for Zelensky? In the latest episode of Ukraine Insights, Jakub Parusinski speaks with senior political researcher Anatoly Oktysiuk about the fallout from the latest tapes, the weakening of Zelensky's power vertical, and why mobilization may become an even bigger threat to stability than corruption itself.  Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

The EU Foreign Affairs Council

The EU Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) will convene on 11 May. As is customary, the discussion on Russia's war against Ukraine will begin following an informal exchange of views with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

The following day, on 12 May, the FAC meeting with defense ministers will also focus on support for Ukraine. The agenda includes an informal exchange of views with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska.

A key vote is expected on Monday after EU ambassadors this week approved the creation of a new international mechanism to compensate victims who suffered material losses as a result of Russia's war. The body will formally begin operating once at least 25 countries complete the ratification process.

Also this week, the European Commission announced the launch of the EU–Ukraine Drone Alliance, aimed at coordinating drone industry cooperation between Ukraine and European partners. The initiative is expected to become operational in the coming months, with applications open until 25 May.

Magyar Takes Office in Budapest, EU Accession Clock Ticks

The inauguration of Hungary's new prime minister, Peter Magyar, will take place on 9 May. Magyar has called on Hungarians to join a "regime change" celebration on Saturday, marking what he describes as the end of the Viktor Orbán era after 16 years in power.

The Tisza Party has pledged to roll back many of Orbán's policies and restore the EU flag to the façade of the Hungarian Parliament building, where it had flown until being removed in 2014.

With Hungary expected to lift its blockade of key EU decisions concerning Ukraine following Orbán's electoral defeat, Kyiv anticipates the formal launch of EU accession negotiations in the near future. The opening of the first negotiation cluster, "Fundamentals," the next step after the technical completion of the screening process, is expected soon.

This week, the Council of the European Union's Working Party on Enlargement and Countries Negotiating Accession to the EU (COELA) paid its first official visit to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a recent public opinion survey in Hungary showed that fewer than half of Tisza Party supporters favor restarting the EU's formal accession talks with Ukraine. Nationwide, only 12% of Hungarians support providing military assistance to Ukraine, while 24% support financial aid for Kyiv.

Russia's Oil Exports Expectations

Ukrainian drone strikes temporarily disrupted Russian oil exports, cutting flows from key Baltic ports by half, but repairs quickly restored operations. Looking ahead, revenues could climb further if oil prices hold, though a stronger ruble may offset some gains.

Export volumes hit their highest since December at 3.66 million barrels per day, while weekly revenues reached a post-invasion record of $2.42 billion, driven by Middle East turmoil, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and eased US sanctions.

Council of Europe Outlines Ukraine Action Plan 2027–2030

At the Council of Europe, an information meeting on the outline of the Action Plan for Ukraine 2027–2030 will take place on 11 May.

The new Action Plan, titled "Democratic Security for Ukraine," is intended to support the development and effective implementation of a future peace framework for Ukraine, strengthen the country's democratic resilience through reforms in governance, the rule of law, and human rights, and advance Ukraine's strategic goal of EU membership by aligning domestic reforms with European standards. Work on the initiative began in February this year.

Kyiv's Reform Agenda: Verkhovna Rada Plenary Week

Next week will be a plenary week in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The agenda includes several draft laws tied to Ukraine's commitments under IMF programs and the Ukraine Facility, including:

• No. 15111-D – amendments on the international automatic exchange of information on income earned through digital platforms and the taxation of such income (second reading, IMF requirements)
• No. 15112 – amendments on VAT taxation for e-commerce transactions (first reading, IMF)
• No. 12117 – amendments to improve the functioning of industrial parks (second reading, Ukraine Facility)
• No. 13435 – draft law on property valuation (first reading, Ukraine Facility)
• No. 14327-D – amendments aligning Ukrainian legislation with EU standards and European Payments Council criteria to enable Ukraine's accession to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) (first reading, Ukraine Facility, DPL, IMF, European Commission recommendations)

Events and Milestones:

Next week:

• 12-14 May, Kyiv. Offline event: UA Energy — International Exhibition and Conference on Ukraine's Sustainable Energy Recovery. The event brings together government, investors, financial institutions, and technology leaders to build a modern, independent, and secure energy system in Ukraine. Register here.
• 14 May, London. Offline event: From destruction to recovery: Building Ukraine's future prosperity. Chatham House, in partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is convening a high-level conference to discuss the roadmap for Ukraine's economic recovery. Register here.
• May 14. Day of Remembrance of Ukrainians who rescued Jews during the Second World War.
• May 17. Day of Remembrance of Victims of Political Repression.

Further ahead:

• 20 May, Kyiv. Offline event: II Ukraine Financing Forum. Law firm Sayenko Kharenko organizes a forum that will bring together senior decision-makers involved in structuring capital flows into Ukraine. Register here.
• 21 May. Online event: How can Ukraine effectively use €60 billion in EU defense aid? The Center for Economic Strategy (CES) is hosting its May review of the Ukrainian economy, with the central discussion focused on EU funds. Register here.
• 25-26 June, Gdansk. Hybrid event: The Ukraine Recovery Conference. URC 2026 seeks to bolster international support for the country's reconstruction as well as catalyze investments for Ukrainian businesses. The event will focus on the sectors most impacted by Russian aggression: energy, critical infrastructure, and logistics. More details here.
• 28-29 May, Kyiv. Offline event: V Foreign Investment Congress. An event bringing together global investors, businesses, and officials to support private investment in Ukraine's recovery. Register here.