Key Ukraine Events (26 October–1 November): Rada votes on budget and martial law, EU-Canada summit

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The week ahead will be dominated by a busy plenary week in the Verkhovna Rada, where MPs take up the 2027 budget, reforms tied to international funding, and the extension of martial law. EU and Canadian leaders meet in Montreal as Brussels prepares Ukraine's accession roadmap. The peace process stays on hold until after the U.S. midterms, with little expected next week beyond new statements. The National Bank of Ukraine sets its key rate as inflation accelerates, and Bulgaria heads for a presidential runoff.

Rada takes up budget and reforms tied to funding

The Verkhovna Rada meets for a plenary week on 26–30 October. Aside from the 2027 state budget, the agenda consists almost entirely of bills tied to Ukraine's commitments to the EU and the IMF, on which further international financing depends. Several are marked "critically important," a label that appears on the agenda for the second time.

The budget is expected to go to a first reading around 28 October, after the budget committee worked through a record 5,236 amendments. The committee wants higher pay for soldiers and double the state guarantees for defense companies, to 60 billion hryvnias. It also proposes allowing large privatizations at reduced starting prices in 2027.

The key test is the anti-corruption strategy for 2026–2030, required under the EU's Ukraine Facility. It was pulled from consideration last plenary week and is now flagged as critically important, making it a bellwether for relations with Brussels. MPs will also consider bills on joining the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), civil service competitions, corporate governance, and procedures at the High Anti-Corruption Court.

Martial law and general mobilization expire on 31 October, so it is critical that parliament extends them next week. Zelensky has yet to sign the decrees for a new 90-day period and submit them to the Rada for approval.

EU prepares Ukraine's accession roadmap

The European Commission will present its 2026 enlargement package that includes indicative accession roadmaps for Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania. The package was due on 28 October but has been pushed back to 4 November. Each roadmap will set out reform priorities, expected outcomes, and tentative deadlines for closing negotiations, as well as obligations for EU member states.

Ukraine has opened four of six negotiating clusters, and Ursula von der Leyen aims to open the last two by the end of the year. Hungary and Bulgaria have already pushed to water down the EU's language on that timeline. Several capitals also oppose setting even indicative deadlines, wary of giving the Commission more say over enlargement.

Kyiv and Brussels have set up a joint task force to speed up rule-of-law and anti-corruption reforms, the next hurdle once all clusters are open.

EU and Canada meet in Montreal

EU and Canadian leaders meet in Montreal on 29–30 October for a summit expected to launch a new partnership. Ottawa is in talks to join the EU's 90 billion euro support loan for Ukraine and had hoped to agree on its contribution before the summit. The U.K. is so far the only non-EU country taking part. Brussels is also pressing Canada, the U.K., Japan, and other partners to help cover Ukraine's 70 billion euro funding gap for 2027.

Canada has been one of Kyiv's most consistent backers. In September, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Zelensky signed a 100-year partnership, with deals worth over $2 billion and $253 million for air defense interceptors.

Peace talks on hold until U.S. midterms

The peace process is on pause until at least the U.S. midterm elections on 3 November. Little is expected next week beyond new statements. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Moscow is ready in principle to resume trilateral talks around 10 November, possibly in Abu Dhabi. Zelensky expects talks in early November and wants them to prepare a leaders' meeting.

The latest round brought no breakthrough. After meeting Zelensky and European allies in Oslo, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October and praised him as a humanitarian. Moscow still demands all of Donbas, and Kyiv calls for a ceasefire along the front line.

Donald Trump keeps raising the pressure on Kyiv. He said Russia has been fine on Ukraine and suggested Kyiv find a new negotiator. Putin, meanwhile, is pushing for a meeting with Trump, possibly together with Xi Jinping, at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November.

NBU sets rates

The National Bank of Ukraine announces its key rate decision on 29 October. In September, it raised the rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16%, citing persistent price pressure from Russia's war and the conflict in the Middle East. Inflation has since accelerated further, reaching 10% in September, up from 8.1% in August, driven by fuel prices and higher administrative tariffs.

Bulgaria heads for a runoff

Bulgaria's presidential runoff is set for 1 November. The results of the first round on 25 October will show which two candidates go through. The latest polls show incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev, leading with 49.2% against 24.8% for the pro-European Andrey Gyurov. A Sova Harris poll gives her 65.8% in a runoff against Gyurov.

The vote matters for Ukraine because an Iotova win would strengthen Radev. His government has threatened to veto EU sanctions on Russia and refused to join the Coalition of the Willing.

New EU sanctions listings

A decision on new EU sanctions listings is expected once national experts finish reviewing the proposal. The EU's diplomatic service has proposed 117 listings in response to Trump's diesel deal with Moscow, targeting 31 Russian oil processing, refining, and export facilities and 52 banks and financial institutions. The proposal also covers companies in the UAE, Oman, Singapore, and Hong Kong, and needs the backing of ambassadors and then ministers from all 27 member states.

How is Russian propaganda changing? In the latest Ukraine Insights episode, Alesia Rudnik, a researcher in politics and technology in autocracies, joins Alex Fynn to discuss the Kremlin's evolving propaganda strategy, pressure on independent Russian media, and how authoritarian governments control access to information. Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

Events and Milestones:

Next week:

• 29 October, Online. KI Insights monthly briefing "On Borrowed Time: Ukraine's Economy in the War's Fifth Winter." Ukraine's widening fiscal gap, rising inflation, labor shortages, and what renewed strikes on energy mean for industry, exports, and the business climate. Subscribers only. Register here.

Further ahead:

• 5 November, Online. KI Insights monthly briefing "The Morning After: Washington's New Balance and Ukraine." What the new balance in the House and the Senate means for security assistance and sanctions, whether the outcome strengthens or constrains the White House's approach to talks with Moscow, how it affects European burden-sharing, and how Kyiv plans to adjust in 2027. Subscribers only. Register here.
• Save the date! 10 November, Kyiv. KI Insights briefing on Ukraine’s winter. More details will follow in upcoming issues and on our website.
• 20 November, London. Offline event: 6th UK-Ukraine Defense Tech Forum. A forum bringing together Ukrainian, British, and international defense tech companies, venture capital investors, government representatives, and defense industry leaders to strengthen cooperation, scale production, and accelerate R&D and innovation in defense technologies. Register here.
• 28–29 January 2027, Tallinn, Estonia, and Online. Ukraine Recovery Conference 2027. The annual international conference on Ukraine's recovery is co-hosted by the governments of Estonia and Ukraine. In English and Ukrainian. Read more here.