Key Ukraine events (4-10 May): Russia's Victory Day parade, EPC summit, Mindich case to affect Umerov

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Ceasefire prospects dominate the week as Russia proposes a Victory Day truce, while Ukraine signals interest only in a durable deal. European diplomacy is advancing on two tracks: a high-stakes EPC summit in Yerevan and EU-level talks over the conditions attached to Ukraine's €90 billion loan. The Mindich tapes scandal widens, drawing in former Defense Minister Umerov.

Russia's Victory Day Ceasefire Offer

The key story to watch next week is a potential new ceasefire proposed by Russia ahead of Victory Day, which Moscow marks on 9 May. President Volodymyr Zelensky has not ruled out the offer, but made clear that Ukraine is interested only in a lasting truce – not a brief, symbolic one. Consultations with Washington are expected, and their outcome will likely determine the ceasefire's fate. President Donald Trump has expressed support for the idea.

During the previous Easter ceasefire, Ukraine recorded almost 11,000 Russian violations. In 2025, President Vladimir Putin announced a 72-hour ceasefire starting 7 May — one that never materialized.

Moscow will hold its Victory Day parade on 9 May to mark what the Kremlin calls the Great Patriotic War – one of the most prominent propaganda showcases in Putin's Russia. This year's event will be notably stripped down: for the first time in many years, the parade will proceed without heavy military hardware or the participation of military cadets.

European Political Community Convenes in Yerevan

The European Political Community will convene in Yerevan, Armenia, on 4-5 May. Ukraine is listed among the participating delegations. The Armenian side is anticipating a visit from President Zelensky, though Kyiv has yet to confirm his attendance. The official agenda centers on strengthening democratic resilience, advancing connectivity, and reinforcing economic and energy security.

The real business, however, is likely to unfold on the sidelines. The status of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and the European Union's position on it are expected to dominate informal discussions. Zelensky may hold bilateral meetings with EU leaders present in Yerevan, most notably French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

EU Committees Scrutinize Ukraine's €90 Billion Loan

The European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee and Budgets Committee will hold a Ukraine Facility Dialogue on Monday, 4 May, featuring an exchange of views with Gert Jan Koopman, Director-General of DG ECFIN at the European Commission.

The EU is weighing imposing stricter conditions to access a €90 billion loan that is critical to keeping Ukraine financially afloat and sustaining its war effort. Among the measures under consideration, the European Commission is looking to tie €8.4 billion in macro-financial assistance, due to be disbursed this year, to the introduction of an unpopular business tax reform.

EU Enlargement and MFF on the Table at Informal Ministers' Meeting

The EU's week closes with an Informal Meeting of Ministers for European Affairs, scheduled for 10–11 May. Discussions will focus on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and EU enlargement.

The defeat of Viktor Orbán, Kyiv's most entrenched opponent within the EU, in Hungary's elections has revived expectations of an accelerated accession process. Yet European leaders have consistently pushed back against the prospect of Ukrainian membership by 2027, a timeline Zelensky has sought to enshrine as a guarantee in any future peace settlement. In lieu of full membership, proposals have emerged to grant Ukraine limited membership benefits during a pre-accession phase – an offer Kyiv has rejected.

Mindich Scandal Widens

A new chapter in the "Mindich tapes" corruption scandal will continue to unfold next week. Newly published excerpts from recordings made by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) feature former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

In response, the Public Anti-Corruption Council at the Ministry of Defense has called for Umerov to be removed from his current post as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC).

Umerov is not new to the investigation. Late last year, he was questioned by NABU in connection with the Mindich case, though no formal suspicion was served against him at the time. The newly released recordings also implicate Ukrainian defense company Fire Point and Serhiy Shefir, director of Studio Kvartal-95 and a close associate of President Zelensky.

War in Ukraine is no longer defined by artillery. In the latest Ukraine Insights episode, Preston Stewart explains what this shift means for modern warfare and what could come next. Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

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Events and Milestones:

Next week:

• 5 May, Washington. Offline event: Engineering the US–Ukraine Defense Tech Partnership. Ukrainian defense companies and innovators will come together with U.S. investors, policymakers, and technology businesses. Register here.
• 7 May, Lviv, in Ukrainian. Offline event: V Conference on Customs Law and International Trade. Organized by the Association of Lawyers of Ukraine, the conference will serve as a professional platform for discussing recent changes in customs legislation, international trade security, and Ukraine's strategic economic development priorities. Register here.
• 8 May. Ukraine, among other European countries, marks the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in World War II.
• 9 May. Europe Day in Ukraine.
• 10-11 May, Offline event: Nordic Ukraine Advocacy Summit 2026. An independent, high-level forum bringing together Nordic and Ukrainian civil society organizations, and leading public voices to strengthen coordinated support for Ukraine and Nordic security. Read more here.

Further ahead:

• 12-14 May, Kyiv. Offline event: UA Energy — International Exhibition and Conference on Ukraine's Sustainable Energy Recovery. The event brings together government, investors, financial institutions, and technology leaders to build a modern, independent, and secure energy system in Ukraine. Register here.
• 14 May, London. Offline event: From destruction to recovery: Building Ukraine's future prosperity. Chatham House, in partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is convening a high-level conference to discuss the roadmap for Ukraine's economic recovery. Register here.
• 25-26 June, Gdansk. Hybrid event: The Ukraine Recovery Conference. URC 2026 seeks to bolster international support for the country's reconstruction as well as catalyze investments for Ukrainian businesses. The event will focus on the sectors most impacted by Russian aggression: energy, critical infrastructure, and logistics. More details here.