Ukraine braces for renewed blackouts amid new wave of Russian attacks on energy
A DTEK worker stands near electrical equipment inside a thermal power plant damaged by Russian missile attacks at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on Nov. 28, 2024. (Olga Ivashchenko / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
After a brief respite, Ukraine is expecting a new wave of Russian mass attacks on its energy infrastructure that could throw the country back into blackouts this winter.
Russian attacks last year wiped out nine gigawatts (GW) of Ukraine’s power generation — half of its capacity — by knocking out eight thermal plants and five hydropower plants, prompting rolling blackouts across the country. Following a partial March ceasefire, Russia concentrated its attacks on local energy facilities in front-line regions, largely avoiding striking key power generation plants.
Now, the threat of mass energy attacks looms again after Russia hit a thermal power facility in Kyiv Oblast on Sept. 8, triggering power outages in the region and parts of the capital. As the nights get longer, Ukraine is hoping to reach 17.6 GW of power generation — enough to meet demands in the heating season but still a fraction of its pre-war capacity of 36 GW.
On Sept. 11, the Energy Ministry announced it was stockpiling fuel reserves and equipment, and coordinating with the army to defend sites from aerial attacks. But, despite the government’s preparations, Ukraine lacks enough air defense to shield all energy facilities from Russian kamikaze drones and missiles.
"Russia fires 20, 30, 40 drones and missiles to simultaneously attack one target. It is extremely difficult to protect our sites," Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK, told reporters at a press briefing on Sept. 10.
If Russia ramps up attacks on power plants and natural gas infrastructure, Ukrainian cities could face hours of blackouts a day and no heating this winter, Olena Pavlenko, president of Dixi Group, a Ukrainian energy think tank, told the Kyiv Independent.
"What we are currently observing, and what we should expect, is escalation from Russia," she added.
Moscow is expected to keep striking front-line regions, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s military logistics and support its advance as peace talks crumble. It is also likely to hit substations and fuel depots far behind the lines to deliver a "strategic shock," with repercussions across the country, Pavlenko said.
The most likely targets are Ukraine’s gas production sites, thermal and hydroelectric plants, and big substations. Knocking these out would deliver the "most significant blow" to Ukraine’s grid, Denys Sakva, an energy sector analyst at Ukrainian investment firm Dragon Capital, told the Kyiv Independent.
The one silver lining is that Russia is extremely unlikely to execute a nuclear winter. Attacking one of Ukraine’s four working nuclear power plants, which generate over 50% of the country’s energy, would be a "disaster in every way," said Sakva.
Winter prep
Moscow has refined its energy terrorism strategy since first attempting to cripple Ukraine’s electrical grid in October 2022. Initially hitting substations, Russia then escalated to direct attacks on the power plants themselves in 2024 with missiles and kamikaze drones.
This year, Russia zeroed in on Ukraine’s gas production sites that feed back-up power generators and heating units. The strikes are only likely to intensify as temperatures plummet.
Energy companies have spent hundreds of millions of dollars patching up plants and infrastructure over the last year. DTEK spent 105 million euros ($124 million) on its damaged thermal power plants alone between January and July this year.
Ukraine has readied 80% of its key energy infrastructure ahead of the biting cold months, thanks to help from allies. In particular, European development banks have provided hundreds of millions of dollars in financing for repairs and loans to shore up low gas reserves.
Ukraine should have enough stockpiles of coal to fuel its thermal plants and is on track to meet its gas target, after reserves crashed to an 11-year low this year, DTEK’s Timchenko told reporters at a press briefing on Sept. 10.
The Energy Ministry has also invested in alternative power sources to the highly centralized energy grid. Distributed energy generation capacity should total 380 MW by the end of the year — enough to power up to 400,000 homes for an hour.
Supplies of small-scale gas turbines, solar panels with storage, and mobile diesel units will keep powering hospitals, water utilities, and district heating if attacks knock out sections of the energy system.
"The Energy Ministry continues to coordinate the work of all key market participants to ensure a stable heating season and guarantee Ukrainians electricity, heat, and gas in winter," the ministry said in a press release.
Defense spread thin
The heating season officially starts in under a month, but vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s energy security persist. Many above-ground infrastructure, like transformers, are still waiting for long-promised protective constructions against drones and falling debris, like gabions, concrete shelters, and anti-drone nets.
The Energy Ministry is ramping up air defense and electronic warfare systems to shield facilities from drones and missiles. But Russia has multiplied the sheer number of drones in its attacks this year, with swarms breaking through Ukraine’s air defenses.
And Ukraine’s air defense is simply spread too thin to cover every facility, especially in more rural regions, said Pavlenko. Recent strikes left 30,000 without power in Chernihiv Oblast on Sept. 3, and even delayed passenger trains by three hours in Poltava Oblast on Sept. 18.
"Resilience depends on continued international support," said Pavlenko.
"The difference between managed power outages and a full-scale humanitarian crisis this winter will depend on how quickly spare parts, backup equipment, and air defense systems and munitions can be delivered."
