Both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries will likely avoid planning major offensives from mid to late March due to the “extremely” muddy conditions, though nothing can be ruled out, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on Feb. 9.
The weather continues to play “a significant role” in the war, with the movement of vehicles expected to get more complicated as the temperature rises and the snow melts, the ministry said in its daily intelligence update.
The terrain would likely be at its “worst” for vehicle maneuver in late March, but “perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns,” the ministry said, referring to how Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 despite seemingly unfavorable terrain conditions.
The U.K.’s bulletin comes as some of the fiercest battles of the war unholds around the city of Bakhmut in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast, as well as near Vuhledar, which sits some 50 km southwest of the Russian occupied Donetsk city.
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