Time is not on Putin's side, Estonia's spy chief tells the Kyiv Independent

Russia is grappling with brewing internal pressure due to battlefield failures in Ukraine and economic difficulties, Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, told the Kyiv Independent on May 16.

"The time is not in (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's favor," at least as long as the West maintains pressure through sanctions and aid to Ukraine, Rosin said in an interview at the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn.

More than four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the Kremlin is facing growing public dissatisfaction over an unpopular internet crackdown, rising taxes, and persistent inflation.

The advance of Russian troops has also lost pace, while Ukraine's long-range drone strikes grow more effective, most recently targeting the Moscow region over the weekend.

"There is no real battlefield success (for Russia), despite the extremely high cost," said the spy chief of a 1.3-million-strong NATO member state sharing a border with Russia.

"We see that the economic and financial problems are actually mounting, despite the current high oil prices."

However, Rosin noted that the situation is not yet dire for Putin to give up his demands in Ukraine and seek a fair settlement.

"But let's see what the second half of the year will bring. It will not get easier for Putin," he said, adding that the West and Ukraine are moving along a "good trajectory."

The Kremlin recently signaled interest in reviving U.S.-mediated peace talks, despite downplaying the effort for months.

Peace talks have effectively stalled as Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas region in the east — a non-starter for Kyiv.

Rosin said he does not believe Russia is currently interested in earnest peace talks, nor does he think that Ukraine giving up Donbas would lead to a lasting settlement.

"Probably, Russia would then come with some new demands, and then start the negotiations again from zero," he said. "I wouldn't fall into that trap."

Putin's overall goal, Rosin argues, remains the capture of Ukraine and the destruction of the European security infrastructure.

Rosin also sees no change in Moscow's view of the U.S., despite the apparent thaw since Donald Trump's return to the White House last year.

Moscow has sought to engage the Trump administration economically and diplomatically since early 2025, floating what it claims are lucrative business deals.

"The Russians feel they can outsmart the West," the Estonian spy chief said. "Russia's main enemy, strategically, remains the U.S."

The all-out war in Ukraine has also sparked concerns about Russian aggression spreading further into the Baltic region.

The worries were further fueled by a rift between the U.S. and its NATO allies in Europe, with Trump even threatening to exit the alliance due to disagreements over the war his country is waging against Iran.

According to Rosin, Moscow's military remains fully occupied in Ukraine and does not currently have enough forces available to launch an attack against Estonia.

At the same time, the intelligence chief warned against the West falling into complacency in the face of the Russian threat.

"I think we don't have the luxury to think that we have many years," Rosin said. "We have to do our work now."