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The US and Europe have a narrow window to change Russia's war trajectory

Editor's note: The op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Oct. 13, 2026. The United States and Europe risk squandering the best opportunity since 2022 to alter Russia's trajectory toward a longer and larger war. Ukraine currently has the best chance of seizing the strategic initiative against Russia since December 2022, even as it faces the greatest risk to its momentum. Russia's ballistic missile and jet-powered drone campaign against Ukr

A man is seen through a broken window inside a damaged building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 14, 2026.

About Chornobyl

Chornobyl in northern Ukraine is the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, which occurred in 1986. The site is approximately 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of Kyiv. Russian forces seized the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone on February 24, 2022, occupying the contaminated area until late March 2022 and causing disruptions to radiation monitoring. Ukrainian authorities restored control after Russian troops withdrew in the spring of 2022.

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