Russia's contract soldier recruitment rate may have dropped in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, the Meduza news outlet reported on Dec. 4, citing its analysis of Russia's federal budget.
Based on the conclusions from expenditures for sign-on bonuses and earlier research, Meduza estimates that the Russian military signed between 500 and 600 new contracts per day. This would be less or barely enough to cover Russia's irreversible battlefield losses, estimated by Meduza at 600-750 per day, including 200-250 fatalities.
The figures could not be verified as Russia does not disclose its casualty rates.
If accurate, these figures indicate a tipping point in Moscow's ability to compensate its casualties in its full-scale war in Ukraine. Despite the war being Russia's deadliest conflict since World War II, observers believed the country could substitute them through volunteers and limited "covert" mobilization.
According to the analysis's more liberal estimates, Russia may have signed up to 82,000 new contracts in the third quarter if bonuses had been budgeted with delays and, therefore, according to earlier lower levels.
Russian President Vladimir Putin hiked the sign-on bonuses earlier this year to attract more recruits for the war. The lump-sum payment went from 195,000 rubles (now $1,900) to 400,000 rubles (now $3,900) in August.
The figure of 82,000 would still decrease from roughly 93,000 contracts concluded in the previous quarter. The most conservative scenario, disregarding possible delays, put the number of contracts in the third quarter at 49,000, which could come down to the said 500-600 losses per day.
Federal budget reports show that Russia spent 48.56 billion rubles ($472.6 million) on one-time sign-on bonuses between the start of the year and Oct. 1.
The Kremlin has avoided instituting likely unpopular full-scale mobilization, seeking instead to find recruits among volunteers, migrant workers, and residents of poorer regions. More recently, Russia's manpower capacity was boosted by a dispatch of 10,000-12,000 North Korean troops.
Russian forces have advanced in eastern Ukraine at a long-unseen pace over the past few months, albeit at the cost of record losses. In turn, Ukraine struggles more with offsetting its losses, with Ukrainian commanders complaining about understaffed units on the front as the mobilization drive slows.
These factors are likely to play a role in any negotiations, a possibility discussed increasingly frequently in the world's capitals.
Chris York
(Updated: )
