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National Bank of Ukraine improves GDP growth forecast for 2024

by The Kyiv Independent news desk and Tania Myronyshena January 25, 2024 5:44 PM 2 min read
A seller arranges tomatoes on the stall at the Pryvoz Market in Odesa. (Photo by NurPhoto/ Getty Images)
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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.6% this year, chairman Andrii Pyshnyi said in a press briefing published on Jan. 25.

"Despite the war, economic growth will continue. In 2024, real GDP is expected to increase by 3.6%, primarily due to the maintenance of high budget expenditures amid anticipated levels of international assistance at a sufficient level," he said.

Pyshnyi highlighted the implementation of extensive reconstruction projects as a stimulus for economic recovery in Ukraine. Western partners have also in recent times shown more serious intent to facilitate the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

"Their retrieval for the benefit of Ukraine will significantly improve key macroeconomic indicators," reported Pyshnyi.

The economy recovered throughout the past year due to the high adaptability of businesses and the population to the conditions of war, as well as a lenient fiscal policy supported by extensive international financing.

International financial support for Ukraine is expected to be maintained over 2024 but at reduced levels. This will allow the country to keep international reserves at a high level and ensure exchange rate stability.

Over 2025-2026, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4-6% per year due to a reduction in security risks. This is the key assumption of the NBU's future forecast.

The Ukrainian economy fell to its lowest point in 2022. The Ministry of Economy reported that the GDP declined by 30.4% over the year.

Ukraine’s National Bank keeps interest rate at 15%
“This decision is in line with the need to further maintain exchange rate stability and moderate inflation in 2024, and bring it to the target range of 5% ± 1 pp,” NBU Board Chairman Andrii Pyshnyi told a briefing.
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