Skip to content
Edit post

National Bank: Fewer Ukrainians returning than previously estimated

by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk November 3, 2023 9:15 PM 2 min read
Refugees from Ukraine stand on a platform at the Messebahnhof Laatzen station in Laatzen, Germany after their arrival on April 15, 2023. (Michael Matthey/picture alliance via Getty Images)
This audio is created with AI assistance

Fewer Ukrainians who fled abroad at the start of the full-scale invasion have returned home than forecasts predicted, the National Bank said in its inflation report for October 2023, published on Nov. 2.

While over 6 million people fled Ukraine during the full-scale Russian invasion, only one million have come back, according to UN figures.

Between June 2023 and September 2023, the number of Ukrainians abroad only fell by around 100,000 people.

The number of people returning to Ukraine is "less than expected," the National Bank reported, citing high security risks as a reason.

In fact, there are likely more Ukrainians abroad than a year ago, as "due to the increased risks of attacks on the energy infrastructure, some citizens are likely to spend the heating season abroad."

As a result, there will be an estimated 200,000 more Ukrainians living outside the country at the end of 2023 than at the end of 2022.

Most Ukrainians who fled the war are in the European Union, where the Temporary Protection Directive allows them live and work inside EU until March 4, 2025.

National Bank: Ukrainian businesses report more pessimistic outlook due to labor shortages
Ukrainian enterprises report that a serious shortage of personnel is contributing to a more pessimistic economic outlook, according to the October edition of a monthly survey published by Ukraine’s National Bank on Nov. 1.

The countries that host some of the largest numbers of Ukrainians, namely Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, "announced the winding down of support programs" for Ukrainian refugees, according to the National Bank.

This may encourage Ukrainians to consider their come back to their home country next year.

The Bank estimates that about 100,000 people will return to Ukraine in 2024, and approximately 700,000 people will return in 2025.

However, Ukraine's post-war recovery will require the return of 4.5 million of its people, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in an interview published by Forbes Ukraine on Nov. 2.

While polls suggest that the majority of Ukrainians who fled the country want to come home, they will only do so on the condition of "security, housing, and work," the Economy Ministry believes.

Demographic disaster: Ukraine’s biggest post-war threat
The threat of a demographic crisis has been building in Ukraine for a while but Russia’s full-scale invasion has pushed it to the breaking point. The country had a population of 41 million in 2021, by the government’s reckoning. Now, it hovers around 35 million and experts warn
Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.
Freedom can be costly. Both Ukraine and its journalists are paying a high price for their independence. Support independent journalism in its darkest hour. Support us for as little as $1, and it only takes a minute.
visa masterCard americanExpress

News Feed

9:22 PM

Kuleba: Albania to open embassy in Kyiv soon.

Albania is planning to open its embassy in Kyiv "soon," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on social platform X on Feb. 28 after meeting his Albanian counterpart Igli Hasani in Tirana.
Ukraine Daily
News from Ukraine in your inbox
Ukraine news
Please, enter correct email address
2:39 PM

Navalny's funeral to be held in Moscow on March 1.

The funeral of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny will be held on March 1 in Moscow's Borisov cemetery, Navalny’s spokesperson Kira Yarmysh announced on Feb. 28. The funeral will take place at 2 p.m., but Yarmysh advised those who wanted to come to arrive earlier.
1:43 PM

Albania, Ukraine sign cooperation agreement.

Albania and Ukraine signed a "Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation," President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Feb. 28 during his visit to Tirana for the Ukraine-Balkans summit.
MORE NEWS

Editors' Picks

Enter your email to subscribe
Please, enter correct email address
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Successfuly subscribed
Thank you for signing up for this newsletter. We’ve sent you a confirmation email.