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Media: Western intelligence sees 'gloomy' outlook for Ukraine, 'major' losses of territory in 2024

by Chris York May 25, 2024 6:31 PM 2 min read
Soldiers of the 68th Jaeger Brigade "Oleksa Dovbush" walk in the newly liberated village on June 10, 2023 in Blahodatne, Ukraine. The village Blahodatne is located on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. (Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
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Ukraine faces "major" territorial losses and a "gloomy overall picture" for the rest of 2024, according to a new Western intelligence assessment, German media reported on May 25.

According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) newspaper, a report seen by German MPs says Ukraine will not be able to regain the initiative this year and is likely to lose more land than it already has since January.

It highlights Russia's current superiority in artillery as a major factor as well as Moscow's ability to absorb far more losses of men and materiel.

According to Ukrainian figures, Russian losses in Ukraine passed the grim milestone of 500,000 on May 25. The figure could not be independently verified.

The new report says that Kyiv's mobilization efforts will only "have an impact at the end of the summer" because recruits need to undergo training, meaning Ukraine is not in a position to "compensate for losses and build up reserves."

According to the German newspaper Welt, the report has been met with a mixed reaction among the country's politicians.

Roderich Kiesewetter of the Christian Democratic Union said such pessimistic reports were being published in order to "subtly but cruelly" pressure Kyiv to "cede territory."

But Ralf Stegner of the Social Democratic Party said the contents of the report were correct and "consistent with what I know."

Russia has held the battlefield initiative for much of 2024 so far and earlier this month launched a new offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast though, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, at a high cost.

Russia's losses during the offensive are eight times higher than those suffered by Ukraine's armed forces, he said in an interview published on May 25.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claim.

As Russian losses in Ukraine hit 500,000, Putin buries future demographic risks at home
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, over half a million Russian soldiers were either killed or wounded in Ukraine during the 27-month-long full-scale war. The staggering number is in line with the estimates of the U.K. and France, which said earlier in May that the overall Russian losses are set
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