Ukraine faces "major" territorial losses and a "gloomy overall picture" for the rest of 2024, according to a new Western intelligence assessment, German media reported on May 25.
According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) newspaper, a report seen by German MPs says Ukraine will not be able to regain the initiative this year and is likely to lose more land than it already has since January.
It highlights Russia's current superiority in artillery as a major factor as well as Moscow's ability to absorb far more losses of men and materiel.
According to Ukrainian figures, Russian losses in Ukraine passed the grim milestone of 500,000 on May 25. The figure could not be independently verified.
The new report says that Kyiv's mobilization efforts will only "have an impact at the end of the summer" because recruits need to undergo training, meaning Ukraine is not in a position to "compensate for losses and build up reserves."
According to the German newspaper Welt, the report has been met with a mixed reaction among the country's politicians.
Roderich Kiesewetter of the Christian Democratic Union said such pessimistic reports were being published in order to "subtly but cruelly" pressure Kyiv to "cede territory."
But Ralf Stegner of the Social Democratic Party said the contents of the report were correct and "consistent with what I know."
Russia has held the battlefield initiative for much of 2024 so far and earlier this month launched a new offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast though, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, at a high cost.
Russia's losses during the offensive are eight times higher than those suffered by Ukraine's armed forces, he said in an interview published on May 25.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claim.
Chris York
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