Skip to content
Edit post

ISW: Status of Wagner deal 'unclear,' mercenary forces retain freedom

by Haley Zehrung July 9, 2023 7:11 AM 2 min read
This audio is created with AI assistance

Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.

Become a member Support us just once

The status of the deal between Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is unclear, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its July 8 assessment.

According to the ISW, Putin continues to allow Wagner and Prigozhin to operate in Russia. Nearly 25,000 Wagner fighters who led and participated in the armed rebellion apparently have full freedom of movement within Russia.

The ISW estimated that Putin has allowed Wagner mercenaries these freedoms either because of  "remarkable confidence in their renewed loyalty, desperation to lure as many as possible to his side, or an inability to take action against them."

Despite the full ramifications of the Wagner rebellion remaining unclear, Ukraine has already benefitted from the insurrection and will likely benefit even further, the ISW added.

"Putin’s handling of the Wagner Group will likely keep them from fighting in Ukraine for the duration of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive and may permanently degrade Russia’s overall capability to wage war in Ukraine," especially in regard to Russian positions in and around Bakhmut, the ISW wrote.

The assessment also alleged that Russian military leadership is considering replacing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a consequence of the rebellion, indicating that the effects of the rebellion are still being felt at every level of Russian leadership.

The Wagner Group has been rotating its forces in the Middle East and Africa, which the ISW speculates may be in preparation of moving all Wagner operations to three new bases located in Belarus in August 2023.

Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko said on July 6 that Prigozhin had returned to Russia, but added that his previous offer to Wagner mercenaries to move to Belarus still stands.

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko tells Belarusians to ‘calm down’ as Wagner’s move still undecided
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko urges Belarusians to “calm down” after the presumed arrival of Wagner Group mercenaries following their day-long insurrection in Russia. Rumors continue circulating about whether camps to house Wagner troops are under construction. Lukashenko claims that th…
Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.
Freedom can be costly. Both Ukraine and its journalists are paying a high price for their independence. Support independent journalism in its darkest hour. Support us for as little as $1, and it only takes a minute.
visa masterCard americanExpress

News Feed

Ukraine Daily
News from Ukraine in your inbox
Ukraine news
Please, enter correct email address
1:54 AM

Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Russian forces struck 10 communities in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast in 28 separate attacks throughout the day, the regional administration reported on May 26. No casualties were reported.
3:12 PM

Russian shell production three times greater than of Ukraine's allies.

Using publicly available data, consulting firm Bain & Company claims that Russian factories can produce or refurbish 4.5 million 152 mm shells for $1,000 per round this year. European countries and the U.S. are only expected to produce 1.3 million 155 mm shells combined at an average cost of $4,000 per unit.
12:50 PM

Governor: 16 killed in Russian strike on Kharkiv hypermarket.

The death toll of Russia’s May 25 strike on a building materials hypermarket in Kharkiv has risen to 16, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on the afternoon of May 26. Over 40 people are confirmed to have been wounded, and over a dozen more are considered missing, the National Police reported earlier the same day.
MORE NEWS

Editors' Picks

Enter your email to subscribe
Please, enter correct email address
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Successfuly subscribed
Thank you for signing up for this newsletter. We’ve sent you a confirmation email.