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The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russia’s attack on Ukraine from Belarus is more plausible at the end of 2023.
“There are no observed indicators that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for the winter or spring 2023 attack against Ukraine about which Ukrainian issued warnings in late 2022,” the ISW writes.
The ISW adds that by the fall of 2023, Russia might be able to complete a couple of conscription cycles. Also, the delay could allow Russia to produce more military equipment.
Since the launch of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, Belarus has participated in Russia’s aggression by letting Russian troops use its territory to attack Ukraine. However, Belarusian troops have not been sent to Ukraine yet.