The recently signed U.S.-Ukraine critical minerals agreement is unlikely to deliver significant financial returns for at least a decade, industry experts told Reuters, citing major challenges to mining investment in war-torn Ukraine.
The deal, inked April 30, creates an investment fund and grants the United States special access to new projects developing Ukraine’s natural resources, such as oil and gas, lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements.
"If anyone’s thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they’re dreaming," Adam Webb, head of minerals at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence consultancy, told Reuters. "It’s going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war."
While developing mineral deposits typically takes 10 to 20 years in established mining countries like Canada or Australia, Ukraine faces steeper obstacles. Many of its mineral sites have limited geological data, and the full-scale Russian invasion has left key infrastructure, including transport and energy systems, in disrepair.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been seeking to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, had urged Ukraine to sign the agreement, arguing that the U.S. should gain more from its support to the country, which has depended heavily on American aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Despite the uncertainty, Ukrainian officials have touted the deal as a political milestone that could help revive U.S. support under Trump, particularly in the form of weapons and financial assistance.
One key omission from the deal is a provision long sought by Kyiv — security guarantees that could help deter future Russian aggression after a ceasefire. The level of investment expected to enter the fund also remains uncertain.
Ukraine’s pace of issuing new mining licenses has historically been slow, according to Reuters. From 2012 to 2020, just a handful were granted for key resources. Out of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, seven are located in areas currently occupied by Russia.
Andrea Januta
(Updated: )
