This week, the world watched in anticipation for Russia’s Victory Day parade after President Volodymyr Zelensky commented that he could not guarantee the safety of those attending. Meanwhile, the European Union moves one step forward to banning Russian gas from the European continent. It is also revealed this week that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has fallen out of step with the White House.
"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin... doesn't want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath. Ukraine should agree to this, immediately," U.S. President Donald Trump said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to to Antalya, Turkey, for a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting from May 14–16, where he is expected to address the war in Ukraine and push for stronger Allied defense commitments.
The Kremlin said the leaders held a detailed discussion about the Russian initiative and Erdogan expressed full support, reiterating Turkey’s readiness to provide a venue and assist in organizing the negotiations.
Erdogan told Macron that international cooperation is critical for initiating peace negotiations and the "sensitive implementation" of Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction processes, the Turkish Presidency reported.
The assault began around 2 a.m. on May 11, with Russian forces deploying 108 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy UAVs from multiple directions, Ukraine’s Air Force said.
"Think of the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be saved as this never ending 'bloodbath' hopefully comes to an end... I will continue to work with both sides to make sure that it happens."
Soldiers with the 32nd Mechanized Brigade on the move in May, two months before being going to the frontline. (Photo credit: Oleksandr Bordian / Courtesy)
There is a "realistic possibility" that Ukrainian forces can break through the remaining Russian defensive lines on the southern front by the end of 2023, Trent Maul, the director of analysis of the U.S.' Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said in an interview with The Economist on Sept. 6.
Ukraine's forces pierced through the first of three Russian defensive lines near the village of Robotyne and are attacking the second line, with notable success, the official of the Pentagon's intelligence agency said.
"Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic," Maul told The Economist.
"Their (Ukraine's) breakthrough on that second defensive belt…is actually pretty considerable."
However, the future progress will depend on Ukraine's supply of artillery and on the weather conditions during the fall, he added.
Ukrainian General Oleksandr Tarnavsky told the Guardian that Russian forces devoted 80% of their time and resources to building the first and second defensive lines on the southern front. Maul nevertheless warned that the bulk of Russian forces remained at the third line.
According to an unnamed U.S. official cited by The Economist, Ukraine has around six to seven weeks of combat left before its counteroffensive culminates. Disagreements on Kyiv's chances continue in Washington, with some predicting that the campaign will be hampered by the heavy casualties Ukrainian forces have sustained, the outlet reported.
Maul however reminded that Russian General Sergei Surovikin, who oversaw the construction of the defensive lines, has been sacked, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner Group was responsible for the main Russian successes on the battlefield, died in a plane crash.
The DIA official noted that Ukraine's recent progress was "significant," giving it a "realistic possibility" to break through the second and third line in 2023. The Economist commented that the term "realistic possibility" usually translates in the U.S. intelligence circles as 40-50% probability of success.
Ukraine's counteroffensive has been ongoing in the country's south and east since June. While Western observers have noted the relatively slow progress of the campaign, Ukrainian forces recently reported major successes on the southern front line.
On Sept. 3, General Tarnavsky said that Russia's first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia had been breached. The push-through was possible thanks to a meticulous mine-clearing operation, the commander noted, adding that the second line is less fortified.
Last week, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby also said that Ukraine made "notable progress" on the southern front. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv's forces continue to advance south of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
Martin Fornusek is a news editor at the Kyiv Independent. He has previously worked as a news content editor at the media company Newsmatics and is a contributor to Euromaidan Press. He was also volunteering as an editor and translator at the Czech-language version of Ukraïner. Martin studied at Masaryk University in Brno, Czechia, holding a bachelor's degree in security studies and history and a master's degree in conflict and democracy studies.
Dinara Khalilova
