Russian disinformation tests its Ukraine election playbook

President Volodymyr Zelensky's firing of popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov triggered a wave of street protests and, weeks later, a call from Fedorov himself for wartime elections. It also offered a preview of Russia's playbook for exploiting Ukraine's internal divisions.

Fake articles, fabricated claims, and manipulations over the past few weeks have fed into the Kremlin's portrayal of Ukraine as a country hopelessly divided, and its government — illegitimate.

And while Ukraine cautiously begins discussing what wartime elections would actually mean, Moscow's propaganda machine has long been at work to undermine any result that the Ukrainian voters choose.

Whenever and however the elections are eventually held, Ukraine must brace itself for a Russian disinformation onslaught.

An opening for Russia

The confusion, uncertainty, and division sparked by Zelensky's ousting of Fedorov were a fertile ground for Russian disinformation.

Russian propaganda portrayed the subsequent rallies both as a Western-orchestrated farce and as genuine evidence of the supposedly collapsing support for the war effort.

Pushing contradictory claims is nothing unusual for Russia's disinformation tactics.

The goal is not so much to convince the audiences of a specific claim, but rather to "undermine trust in political actors, institutions, and, ultimately, the democratic process itself," Alyona Hurkivska, a political scientist and disinformation expert at the Kuras Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent.

Online fakes leaned into the surging tensions in Ukraine. A fabricated video bearing the logo of the Ukrainian news agency Unian discussed a non-existent Reuters article about Zelensky's plot to assassinate the fired minister.

Russian propagandists soon folded the issue of elections into the narrative, with several sources falsely claiming that the vote had already been set for Dec. 1, and that Zelensky's surprise reshuffle is just a tactic to stall the vote.

Then, in a bombshell statement on Aug. 18, Fedorov himself said that Ukraine should prepare for wartime elections, breaking one of the country's most sensitive taboos.

Notably, the statement itself did not seem to trigger a surge in outright fakes, said Olha Yurkova, a co-founder of StopFake.org, a Ukrainian fact-checking organization.

What happened instead was a "rapid amplification and manipulative reframing of election-related narratives in Russian state and pro-Kremlin media," Yurkova told the Kyiv Independent.

The uniting theme is one that the Kremlin propaganda machine has long employed against Ukraine — that of an illegitimate government in Kyiv and a divided nation.

Divide and conquer

"Yes, the Kyiv regime, its quasi-political arena, is quite heterogeneous. We see that many are trying to fish in troubled waters; some are trying to invoke democracy and democratic norms, while others don't even try," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on Fedorov's call for elections.

The Kremlin spokesperson also reiterated Moscow's long-standing claim that Ukraine's wartime suspension of elections means that Zelensky lacks legitimacy.

While Zelensky's constitutionally designated five-year term ended in May 2024, the country's legislation says that elections under martial law are impossible.

But this postponement has nevertheless proved useful to Russia.

The Kremlin has argued that without new elections, Zelensky is not a legitimate representative of Ukraine in peace talks, and propagandists have had an easier time depicting the president as a "dictator" or a "puppet of the West."

Pro-Kremlin media channels have used the renewed debate to lambast Zelensky, alleging that he is intentionally prolonging the war to keep himself in power.

Rybar, a pro-war Russian Telegram channel with over 1.5 million followers, claimed that Fedorov's call for elections "questions the legitimacy of Zelensky himself as head of state" — even though the ex-minister made no such statement about Zelensky's legitimacy.

"This is a good example of how the disinformation mechanism works," Yurkova said.

"A real statement is selectively quoted and shifted in meaning until it becomes 'evidence' for a pre-existing narrative."

Rybar proposed a conspiracy theory that both Fedorov's call for an election and the latest anti-corruption investigation into Zelensky's former deputy head of office are part of a U.S.-orchestrated pressure campaign against Ukraine.

"The unwillingness of Western sponsors to personally remove Zelensky does not mean the absence of fatigue with him — and in the event of the elimination of the Ukrainian leader, the West may sooner heave a sigh of relief than begin searching for those responsible," the channel wrote.

Herein lies another important part of Russia's strategy for potential elections in Ukraine — to delegitimize not only Zelensky but any serious candidate who might run against him.

In this spin, both Zelensky and Fedorov are mere pawns on the chessboard, moved around by the West.

This "undermines the idea of Ukrainian political agency by portraying domestic political competition as orchestrated from abroad," Yurkova notes.

As for the elections themselves, the Russian media are already "publishing 'analytical' pieces claiming that any elections in Ukraine will be falsified, controlled by the regime, and ultimately change nothing," Hurkivska said.

This "messaging fits into the broader narrative line — whatever happens politically in Ukraine, the existing 'regime' will remain in control."

A preview of Russia's game plan

Since the Russian invasion began, the idea of wartime elections has faced staunch resistance from activists, experts, much of the public, and politicians — including figures who are fiercely opposed to Zelensky.

But the shrinking, increasingly inefficient parliament, Zelensky's unpredictable personnel decisions, and corruption scandals implicating figures in the president's inner circle have breathed new life into the idea.

Fedorov specifically pointed to a "systematic crisis in governance" and corruption in his appeal for elections.

Nevertheless, obstacles remain.

Legislation continues to prohibit holding elections, and there are no security guarantees in place to shield voters from Russian strikes. Millions of Ukrainians live abroad or under occupation, and many serve at the front lines.

And even if a ceasefire is achieved and technical obstacles are overcome, the past few years have already given a taste of Russia's playbook for future Ukrainian elections.

When a vote is held, Moscow will likely deploy a "multi-layered" strategy, from disinformation targeting specific candidates to AI-generated media and social media amplification, Yurkova said.

"Russia could amplify narratives about fraud and Western interference, portray some candidates as a 'party of war' and others as the 'peace' alternative, and exploit genuine challenges related to voting by soldiers, displaced people, Ukrainians abroad, and citizens from occupied territories, as well as the security conditions under which elections are held," the expert said.

The goal "would be not only to influence the outcome, but also to preserve the ability to challenge its legitimacy afterward."

Editor's note: This article was published as part of the Fighting Against Conspiracy and Trolls (FACT) project, an independent, non-partisan hub launched in mid-2025 under the umbrella of the EU Digital Media Observatory (EDMO). Click here to follow the latest stories from our hub on disinformation.

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Martin Fornusek, one of the authors of the article.

At the Kyiv Independent, our team strives to bring you insights into Russian disinformation, propaganda, and its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. This work is only possible thanks to the support of readers like you. If you value independent journalism, please consider joining the Kyiv Independent's community.