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Russia may be preparing 'large-scale provocation with human casualties,' Ukraine's intelligence warns

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Russia may be preparing 'large-scale provocation with human casualties,' Ukraine's intelligence warns
A view of a destroyed church in Pokrovsk following a rocket strike by Russian forces in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Sept. 6, 2024. (Photo by Patryk Jaracz/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service warned on Jan. 2 that Russia may be preparing "a large-scale provocation with human casualties" as part of its efforts to disrupt the U.S.-mediated peace talks.

The Foreign Intelligence Service said that it predicts with "high probability" that Russian special services may be planning armed provocation, expected to take place on the eve or on the day of Christmas according to the Julian calendar, Jan. 7. The potential provocation may happen at a religious building or other sites of high symbolic significance, either in Russia or in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, it added.

Moscow has recently been spreading disinformation in an apparent attempt to undermine the U.S.-led peace negotiations. Russia claimed that a Ukrainian drone attack targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence on Dec. 29. Both Ukraine and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency denied that such an attempted attack had occurred.

The Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that Moscow is expected to try to falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement by leaving fragments of Western-made strike drones at the site of the provocation.

"Exploiting fear and committing terrorist acts with human casualties under a 'foreign flag' is entirely consistent with the modus operandi of the Russian special services," the Foreign Intelligence Service said in a Telegram post.

The Foreign Intelligence Service has not provided evidence to back its claim. The Kyiv Independent couldn't independently verify the alleged Russian planning of provocation.

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Asami Terajima

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Asami Terajima is a reporter at the Kyiv Independent covering Ukrainian military issues, front-line developments, and politics. She is the co-author of the weekly War Notes newsletter. She previously worked as a business reporter for the Kyiv Post focusing on international trade, infrastructure, investment, and energy. Originally from Japan, Terajima moved to Ukraine during childhood and completed her bachelor’s degree in Business Administration in the U.S. She is the winner of the Thomson Reuters Foundation's Kurt Schork Award in International Journalism 2023 (Local Reporter category) and the George Weidenfeld Prize, awarded as part of Germany's Axel Springer Prize 2023. She was also featured in the Media Development Foundation’s “25 under 25: Young and Bold” 2023 list of emerging media makers in Ukraine.

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Earlier on Jan. 1, Volodymyr Saldo, a Ukrainian politician turned top Russian proxy head of Russian-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, accused Kyiv of launching three drones at a hotel and a cafe on the Black Sea coast. Saldo claimed that the alleged New Year drone strike on the village of Khorly killed 24 people, including a child, and wounded more than 50.

Ukraine formally joined the European Union's single roaming zone on Jan. 1, allowing Ukrainian citizens to use their mobile phone service across the European bloc without incurring additional charges.

 (Updated:  )

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