Russia likely captured over 15 villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since September, OSINT group says
Russian troops appear to have captured more than 15 villages in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast since September, exploiting the weather and Ukraine’s low manpower to scale up their offensive, according to the Finnish Black Bird Group open-source intelligence collective.
Russia "opportunistically" took advantage of the fall weather conditions that make it harder for Ukrainian drones to work against Russian troops, in addition to Ukraine’s manpower crisis, to advance in the eastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Emil Kastehelmi from Black Bird Group said.
"The most gains that the Russians have achieved this fall have been in eastern Zaporizhzhia (Oblast) and Dnipropetrovsk (Oblast)," Kastehelmi told the Kyiv Independent on Nov. 21.
"So here's an area which is seemingly an issue for the Ukrainians, as simply they haven't been able to stop the Russian advance."
The Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast comes as Russian troops also intensify their offensives in other hot spots of the war. Moscow is inching toward finally capturing the eastern logistics hub city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia’s General Staff also claimed on Nov. 20 that its troops had taken the city of Kupiansk in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, which Ukraine immediately denied and called "cheap informational provocations."
Despite deploying enormous forces in the Pokrovsk sector to boost its epicenter of the offensives, Russia managed to break through Ukrainian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast — at a faster pace than before.
Russian troops have recently occupied the small village of Vesele, about 10 kilometers (about six miles) northeast of the contested town of Huliaipole, the Ukrainian open-source battlefield monitoring group DeepState reported on Nov. 20. Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman of the Southern Defense Forces, denied DeepState's report to the Kyiv Independent, saying that the fighting is ongoing for the village.
Ukraine denied that Russian troops had captured Vesele, Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman of the Southern Defense Forces, told Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne.
Russian troops have advanced at most nearly 25 kilometers in the sectors covering Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts since September, which is "a relatively quick pace, especially in this war," Kastehelmi assessed.
"In the Russian doctrine, there's this thing of reinforcing success," Kastehelmi said, stressing that the Russian advance is alarming even if the villages captured are small.
"As they see that here's an area where gains can be made, then they will, of course, opportunistically try to reinforce all the success that they have had, and it looks like it's paying off."
In a rare admission of a setback, the Ukrainian military confirmed on Nov. 15 that its troops had withdrawn from the village of Novovasylivske, which sits on a highway connecting Donetsk Oblast with Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, approximately 20 kilometers (about 12 miles) away.
The Southern Defense Forces of the army had also reported earlier on Nov. 11 that its troops had pulled back from positions near five villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in a withdrawal from the villages of Uspenivka and Novomykolaivka, which are also located along the same highway.
While Russia has usually relied on its traditional encirclement tactic by going around the settlement and capturing it, Kastehelmi said "there is a great possibility" that it could instead flank Huliaipole from the north while "tying it tying the (Ukrainian) defenders in the area down from the eastern and southern directions."
"If (Russian troops) are able to push a little bit forward from the northern side, then the city may be in an encirclement threat at least," he said.
The area in question in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, however, wouldn’t immediately affect the general situation in adjacent Donetsk Oblast even with "a more serious (Russian) breach," according to Kastehelmi.
"It’s after all not a huge place, so it is also possible that if they are too endangered there, they will pull out simply to conserve manpower, or at least I hope they make that decision," Kastehelmi said.
