Heavy equipment losses faced by Russian forces near Avdiivka are likely to "undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their Oct. 26 report.
Russia's military losses in Adviivka include hundreds of destroyed armored vehicles and thousands of killed or wounded personnel. While Russian forces continue to send reserves to the eastern front, the ISW said the equipment losses will pose a serious challenge.
"The Russian command will likely struggle to offset Russian equipment losses, particularly in armored vehicles," the ISW report said.
The ISW pointed to the disastrous effects of Russian equipment shortages in 2022, the first year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The ISW said these losses "heavily restricted Russia’s ability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare during the Russian military's winter-spring 2023 offensive."
According to the ISW, these restrictions led to additional losses incurred in "disorderly mechanized assaults" in Donetsk Oblast in the beginning of 2023. Those losses, in turn, prevented Russian forces from sustaining similar mechanized assaults in other regions of Ukraine.
The equipment losses Russia has incurred around Avdiivka are even greater than those incurred in the winter-spring assaults, the ISW said.
"It remains unclear if the prospect of further heavy equipment losses will deter the Russian command from launching another series of large, mechanized assaults near Avdiivka," the report said.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Oct. 26 that Russia is ramping up production capacities at military factories across the country. The White House has also said that North Korea has begun sending Russia weapons and military equipment.
The ISW said that Russia's military failures near Avdiivka "will likely lead to even more pronounced Russian equipment shortages and setbacks."