European intelligence suggests that Russia may launch an attack on Europe during the winter of 2024-2025 if the United States finds itself "without a leader" following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the German tabloid Bild reported on Dec. 23, citing an anonymous European intelligence source.
The intelligence service source contends that a potential Russian strike on Europe could occur within the presidential transitionary period, contingent on President Joe Biden not securing re-election in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This transition period spans three months, from the November 2024 U.S. presidential election to the subsequent inauguration in January 2025.
According to the intelligence source, Russia may aim to launch an attack on Europe during this transition, especially if the leading Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, is re-elected. Assistance to European countries is anticipated to follow, albeit with some delay.
Throughout his campaign for the presidency, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the level of aid President Joe Biden's administration provides to Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky has also previously warned that the result of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election can "very strongly" influence the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The German think tank DGAP has issued prior warnings to Western nations, suggesting that Russia might launch a direct attack against NATO in "as little as six to 10 years." While Poland's national security agency has expressed a more urgent concern, estimating that Russia could potentially attack NATO in less than 36 months.
Polish officials have previously suggested that Russia might target a NATO alliance member in Eastern Europe, including countries such as Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Lithuania.