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Karol Luczka

Karol Łuczka is a freelance journalist focused on Ukraine and Russia. He also works as Eastern Europe Advocacy Lead at the Vienna-based International Press Institute (IPI). Karol holds an MA in International Security from Sciences Po Paris.

Articles

A man in a military uniform checks his mobile phone on a street in Moscow, Russia, on May 6, 2026.

Why Moscow is afraid this Victory Day

by Karol Luczka
On May 9, Moscow will stage its annual Victory Day parade marking the end of World War II in Europe — but this year, the spectacle is notable not for its grandeur, but for what's missing. For the first time in Vladimir Putin's Russia, no missiles, tanks, or armored vehicles are expected to appear in Saturday's Red Square parade. Although the Kremlin offered no explanation for the dramatic scale-back, recent Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory have suggested that even Putin's militar
smoke rising from oil storage tanks at the Tuapse oil refinery in Tuapse, Russia, on April 16, 2026.

The oil spill in Tuapse and the lessons Russia didn't learn

by Karol Luczka
While the human toll of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine remains its most devastating consequence, another aspect of Russia’s onslaught is often overlooked: Moscow’s war on ecology. Responding to Russia's growing air attacks against Ukraine, over the past 10 days, Ukrainian forces carried out a multitude of drone strikes targeting an oil refinery in Russia's port city of Tuapse. Tuapse, on the Black Sea, has served as a primary point for Russia's oil exports, the proceeds of which are then
Cows cross a road at sunset in the settlement of Oy, Sakha Republic, Russia, on Nov. 27, 2018.

Russia’s cattle outbreak raises questions over possible cover-up

by Karol Luczka
Russian authorities say a cattle epidemic that swept parts of Siberia since February is now under control and caused by a relatively minor bacterial infection, pasteurellosis. But veterinarians and independent journalists question that account, pointing to containment measures — mass animal slaughter, village lockdowns, and secrecy — that more closely resemble a response to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a far more serious and economically damaging outbreak. The discrepancy has fueled resistanc

The political chess behind Poland’s military spending

by Karol Luczka
Poland, one of the largest countries on the EU’s eastern flank, has sharply ramped up its military spending since 2022, with defense expenses reaching 4.5% of GDP in 2025 — among the highest in the European Union. Investment in the military is also exceptionally popular: 67% of Poles support further increases in defense budgets, according to recent local polls. Yet despite this strong backing, a political clash has put the funding strategy in the spotlight. President Karol Nawrocki recently v
A mobile phone displays the Telegram app login page.

What Russia's push to ban Telegram means for its economy — and war effort

“Why do you block the internet?” reads one of the comments under the latest post on Roskomnadzor’s official VKontakte social media page — a bland Women’s Day greeting from the very censorship agency leading Russia’s harshest crackdown on online communication in years. Russian authorities have set April as the target for finally blocking Telegram, one of the last popular international messenger apps still accessible in the country, and force users toward the Kremlin’s glitchy “national messenger

'Real money': How the war in the Middle East exposed India's dependence on Russian oil

by Karol Luczka
The United States has granted New Delhi a temporary waiver allowing it to purchase fuel from Moscow, pausing prior attempts to cut India off Russian energy. "To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post on March 5. Bessent said other exemptions may follow, as oil prices briefly climbed over the $100 mark 10 da
Neptune is pulled into Lubmin Port for LNG import at a new terminal in Lubmin, Germany, on Dec. 15, 2022.

'Structural shift'— EU ban on Russian gas set to harm Moscow long term, despite loopholes

by Karol Luczka
The European Union has approved a long-promised ban on Russian gas imports, a measure meant to lock in the bloc’s shift away from Moscow’s energy supplies nearly four years into Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. Still, the new ban contains major loopholes, meaning that without full commitment by EU member states, some Russian gas will likely continue to flow into the EU, according to sector experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent. What exactly is banned and how The decision on Jan.

'Impossible to ban grief' — how Russia tries and fails to hide its casualties in Ukraine

by Karol Luczka
Russia has tightened control over information about its battlefield losses in Ukraine, cutting off data and closing one public loophole after another. The effort has not stopped the evidence of the dead from surfacing. As 2025 came to an end, Western governments and independent groups alike tallied staggering figures for Russia's battlefield losses in Ukraine, reaching no fewer than 400,000 killed, wounded, and missing that year. According to some estimates, Russia could have lost more soldiers
The El Palito refinery is seen at dusk in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on Dec. 18, 2025.

Trump wants Venezuela's oil — markets may not care

by Karol Luczka
U.S. President Donald Trump made no secret of his plan for Venezuela. "One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices," Trump said in a Jan. 9 meeting with energy executives. “Our giant oil companies will be spending at least $100 billion of their money (in Venezuela),” the president said. Darren Woods, head of oil giant Exxon Mobil, wasn’t sold on Trump’s idea. “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine that to reenter a third tim
Moscow International Business Center in Moscow, Russia, on Sept. 3, 2025.

Russia's strong currency puzzles economists, signals economic woes

by Karol Luczka
Since early December, the Russian ruble has continued to strengthen against global currencies: on Dec. 7, it reached a value of only 76 rubles for one U.S. dollar, a figure unseen since May 2023. It soon dropped to 79 rubles per U.S. dollar, an exchange rate close to one seen on the eve of Russia's full-scale war. Ruble's strength came despite increasing sanction pressure by the Trump administration, which began targeting Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft in October. The measures, which f
Exhumation of bodies from mass burial sites dug during the Russian occupation of Izium, Ukraine, on Nov. 4, 2022.

Why a Ukraine peace deal can't include amnesty for Russia's war crimes

by Karol Luczka
A U.S.-backed 28-point peace plan leaked last month caused uproar in Ukraine and among its allies, among other reasons, because it contained a controversial point implying, in vague terms, a "full amnesty" for acts committed during the war. While Ukrainian officials later claimed that this clause had since been removed, critics fear that it could still return to the text, bringing with it a culture of impunity for war crimes. As talks aiming to secure a peace deal continued with a high-level U

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries spark fuel shortages, export bans, and price hikes

by Karol Luczka
Over the past week, Ukraine's Armed Forces carried out new strikes on Russian oil refineries, forcing Russian authorities to extend a ban on gasoline exports and announce the introduction of a partial ban on diesel exports. Ukraine's sustained campaign of strikes on refineries is now causing mild havoc at gas stations in Russia and occupied Crimea, with prices skyrocketing and short-term shortages widely reported. While, for now, these strikes are unlikely to cause massive disruptions to globa

What the resignation of technocrat Dmitry Kozak tells us about power in Russia

by Karol Luczka
The Kremlin confirmed on Sept. 18 the resignation of Vladimir Putin's long-time close associate, the deputy head of his administration, Dmitry Kozak. According to Peskov, Kozak is leaving of his own accord. His resignation has been accepted, with Sept. 19 set as Kozak's last day in office, Interfax reported, citing an undisclosed source. The New York Times previously reported that Kozak had privately advised Putin against launching the war in Ukraine in 2022. He also reportedly warned of the d

Ukraine is sending the war back to Russia — just in time for Victory Day

by Karol Luczka
Over the past days, Moscow's grand avenues, like every year in early May, were taken over by the growling of 80-year-old tanks and the smell of gasoline burned by military vehicles. To the delight of many locals, soldiers marched in multiple rehearsals for the May 9 Victory Day Parade in the week leading up to the actual event. But as Moscow prepares for its fourth parade since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the atmosphere this year is different. At the turn of the mont