Russia-Ukraine naval drone arms race could 'usher in a new era of warfare'

After a string of devastating Ukrainian strikes that crippled much of its Black Sea Fleet, Russia is now turning to naval drones in a bid to rebuild its presence and adapt to a new phase of maritime warfare.

Since unveiling the world's first dedicated naval drone fleet in September 2022, Ukraine has advanced the use of unmanned maritime systems, successfully sinking nearly a dozen Russian vessels. Meanwhile, Russia has drawn on Ukrainian drone expertise to develop its own capabilities to regain its position in the Black Sea.

In May, the Russian Navy began forming specialized regiments to integrate unmanned boats and underwater vehicles across its fleets, according to the Russian state newspaper Izvestia, marking a clear push to modernize its naval capabilities.

Two months later, Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia's Maritime Collegium, announced plans to further bolster the Black Sea Fleet with marine drones, warships, and additional aircraft in the coming years.

And in perhaps the most troubling sign for Ukraine, a Russian naval drone for the first time struck a Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel on Aug. 28 as it lay moored near the mouth of the Danube River, killing two crew members.

While Russia has yet to demonstrate effective naval drone operations in the Black Sea, experts interviewed by the Kyiv Independent warn against underestimating Moscow's efforts in this emerging domain.

"If Russia switches from using crewed warships, which are mostly hiding in port now, to fighting with naval drones, it will usher in a new era of warfare," H I Sutton, independent naval analyst, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet in crisis

Designed to counter large-scale threats and intercept missiles, the ships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, headquartered in Sevastopol since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, have proven highly vulnerable to Ukrainian naval drones — small, fast, maneuverable craft that are difficult to detect and resistant to electronic warfare.

"The concepts (of naval drones) were there, but not in numbers that (Volodymyr) Zelensky envisioned," Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told the Kyiv Independent. "Ukrainians essentially took this in a direction other countries did not before."

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has developed a range of uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) for both offensive and reconnaissance missions.

Ukraine deployed its SeaBaby naval drone on July 16, 2023, to strike the Crimean Bridge, a vital Russian supply route across the occupied peninsula. Meanwhile, swarms of modified Magura drones sank several Russian warships, including the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov, the missile boat Ivanovets, and the patrol ship Sergei Kotov.

Following a string of successful Ukrainian strikes, several vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet were relocated to Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai from Crimea over the past years, a move confirmed by Ukraine's Navy.

"An auxiliary fleet remains in Crimea, but these are not combat units. There is simply no space to dock ships in Novorossiysk," Dmytro Pletenchuk, Ukraine's Navy spokesperson, told the Kyiv Independent.

"They cannot just fill the harbor with ships either — that would turn them into stationary targets," Pletenchuk added. "And we would definitely take advantage of that."

But with its presence in the Black Sea significantly reduced, Russia still relies on its remaining warships primarily for missile strikes against Ukraine, while continuing to test and develop its own naval drones.

Russia's naval drones progress

Unlike its growing and increasingly advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) program, where Russia has scaled up production and introduced upgrades like jet engines in Shahed-type drones, little is known about the production of Russian USVs.

According to Bendett, Russia's production of USVs lags far behind its UAV output. Many naval drone models introduced after 2022, such as the Vizir, Murena, Orkan, and BEK-1000, closely resemble Ukrainian designs.

Pletenchuk confirmed that Russia has repeatedly copied Ukrainian developments.

"The peculiarity of this process is that when you borrow something from your enemy, you are already at least one step behind. This is exactly what is happening now," the spokesperson added.

Russia also continues to test experimental models of its naval drones. In June, Russian forces reportedly attempted to strike the city of Pivdenne in Odesa Oblast using a Murena-300 drone. The drone failed to reach its target, detonating near Ukrainian territorial waters.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) told the Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne that as of late July, there is a high likelihood that Russia will "soon" complete development of its attack sea drones, posing a "serious threat" to civilians in coastal areas.

However, there is currently a state of parity between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Black Sea, Pletenchuk said, adding that this area is becoming a "gray zone," a contested space between the positions of both sides.

"The Russians cannot afford to go out to sea because of our military presence there, while Russian aircraft are operating in the waters. Unfortunately, they dominate the Azov-Black Sea region," Pletenchuk said.

He added that the deployment of Russian naval drones is unlikely to alter the balance at sea, as uncrewed systems cannot resolve the fundamental issue of ship protection, particularly against anti-ship missile weapons.

"If they could not ensure this before, why should they ensure it now?" said Pletenchuk, responding to Russian claims about asserting control in the Black Sea.

According to Pletenchuk, recent statements from Russian officials suggest that their forces are now focused on regaining control over the eastern part of the Black Sea, specifically, near the Russian coastline.

"And the fact that our enemy is only talking about regaining control near its shores in the Black Sea is a good sign, as well as a decent achievement for Ukrainian forces," the spokesperson added.

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The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova