World Bank lowers Ukraine's 2026 GDP growth forecast
Ukraine's projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2026 has decreased by more than 3%, according to a newly released World Bank report.
The World Bank now expects Ukraine's economy to expand by just 2% — 3.2 percentage points lower than its June 2025 forecast.
"Growth in Ukraine is projected to weaken," the report said. "The economic expansion is likely to slow to 2% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 as Russia's prolonged invasion affects investment and business activity."
The report also noted that Ukraine's gas imports reached their highest level in nearly two years, as "infrastructure damage constrained domestic production." The finding aligns with recent statements from the Energy Ministry, which said Ukraine needs to increase oil imports amid intensified Russian strikes on the country's energy infrastructure.
Despite the challenges, the World Bank highlighted some positive trends: "Ukraine's economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with the emergence of new sectors and productivity upgrades in existing industries likely to contribute to job creation."
Sectors such as information technology, agriculture and agro-processing, and defense are expected to drive job growth, according to the report.
Across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, investment is projected to increase, driven largely by the European Union. However, food price inflation has surged, particularly in Moldova and Ukraine, "where fresh fruit prices were nearly 50% higher than a year ago," the report said.
The Kyiv Independent news desk
