Kyiv officials will meet their Washington counterparts in Jeddah on March 11 for talks which will impact the future of diplomatic relations between the two countries and likely the future of the war in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian side hopes the meeting would help mend ties with the White House and ensure that the future U.S.-led peace process doesn't pose an existential threat to Ukraine.
"The advice for Ukraine is just get yourself aligned with the United States," Ambassador Kurt Volker, who served as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations in 2017-2019 and U.S. ambassador to NATO in 2008-2009, told the Kyiv Independent.
"This pushback on the U.S… is counterproductive," Volker said.
The alignment, however, doesn't seem an easy task, as the U.S. administration has been publicly attacking Ukraine, calling its leader a dictator, and cutting off vital intelligence sharing that may derail Kyiv's ability to defend itself.
In Jeddah, top of the agenda will likely be the critical minerals deal, the signing of which stalled last month following the disastrous meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
Kyiv is entering the talks with a weak hand but is prepared to do what it needs to to get the U.S. back on its side.
Ukraine is still paying the price for what the Trump administration has tried to paint as Zelensky's unwillingness to engage in peace negotiations and Ukraine's lack of gratitude for U.S. military aid, which it froze a few days after the White House meeting.
Kyiv is entering the talks with a weak hand but is prepared to do what it needs to to get the U.S. back on its side.
"We're ready," a source in the President's Office told the Kyiv Independent when asked about the prospect of signing the mineral deal.
In an effort to convince the U.S. that Ukraine is serious about peace and in the hope that Washington will resume military aid and intelligence sharing, Kyiv is also reportedly proposing a partial ceasefire covering long-range drone and missile strikes, as well as hostilities in the Black Sea.
The U.S., however, may now want to extort more from a weakened Ukraine.
Having to offer so much to the U.S. before peace talks with Russia can begin in earnest is being keenly felt in Kyiv.
When asked what Ukraine was expecting at the talks in Jeddah, the source in the President's Office replied: "Finally hearing what the Americans want from the negotiations."
Despite arriving in Saudi Arabia on March 10 for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Zelensky won't be part of Ukraine's official delegation, which will instead by led by his closest aide Andriy Yermak. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Colonel Pavlo Palisa make up the rest of the team.
The U.S. delegation includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.
Even if Ukraine can get the U.S. back onside, the negotiations to end the war are still ahead, and Trump's rhetoric portends anything but an easy path.
"So many of the things that Trump has said in the last two or three days give you the impression that he thinks Ukraine was going to lose regardless, that the Biden administration wasted a lot of money prolonging (the war), and we just have to get that over with," Volker said.
Nothing that has come out of the White House in recent weeks suggests Trump has any interest in reaching a peace agreement that is in Ukraine's interests.
After Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Ukraine would not survive without U.S. support, Trump was asked in an interview on March 9 if he was "comfortable" with the thought of his actions potentially leading to the destruction of the country.
"Well, it may not survive anyway," Trump said.
His assessment of Ukraine's future came around a month after he flippantly suggested the country "may be Russian someday" in comments that made clear his main interest lay in Kyiv's mineral wealth and the ability to pay back U.S. military aid.
Trump's transactional approach to negotiations that appear to have little regard for Ukrainian lives, territory, or sovereignty is a major source of concern in Kyiv, and the country as a whole.
"The expectations (of the Jeddah meeting) are alarming," Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, lawmaker from the Holos party, chairman of the parliamentary committee on freedom of speech, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Because recently the U.S. administration has demonstrated a desire not for just peace, but for the fastest possible reconciliation between the victim and the aggressor, without taking into account the interests of the victim."
Yurchyshyn acknowledged that an "optimistic" outcome for the talks would simply be to get relations back on track and for the U.S. to "take into account the interests of Ukraine in the future negotiation process."
But another unavoidable fact of the U.S.-led peace negotiations so far is that Washington has not yet had to truly negotiate with Russia.
The much-vaunted first round of talks between Washington and Moscow on Feb. 18 produced little of actual substance — restoring embassy staffing for further diplomatic missions, appointing representatives to further the negotiation process, and creating the necessary conditions for restarting U.S.-Russia relations.
While repeatedly strong-arming Ukraine into proving it is serious about peace, the White House has said nothing so far about how it plans to make Russian President Vladimir Putin order his armed forces to put down their guns.
"I hope that Trump's team will explain to our delegation whether or not President Trump has a strategy or a plan with regard to Ukraine and Russian aggression against Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, said.
"Trump's rage has been intensifying."
What form this plan may take and what concessions the U.S. demands of Russia remain to be seen, but after yet another mass missile attack on Ukrainian cities last week, "Trump's rage has been intensifying," Axios reported on March 7, citing an unnamed White House official.
Yet on the same day, Trump still stated he found it "more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine" than Russia, something Volker believes could soon change, saying his statement shows he has a "really misguided set of assumptions about what's happening."
"I think he has some kind of belief that Putin has limited and reasonable demands, which is not the case," he said.
"Putin has unlimited demands, starting with Ukraine, that they should be part of Russia, but then even beyond Ukraine. And I think (Trump) doesn't quite believe that, at least not yet."
Meanwhile, watching from the sidelines is Europe, so far excluded from peace negotiations despite being the very continent upon which the war is being waged.
Until that changes, Brussels faces much the same challenges as Kyiv — convincing Trump that Ukraine's interests need to be considered.
"We have reiterated at all levels precisely that it is in Ukraine's interest, in Europe's interest, and ultimately also in the U.S. interest to put Ukraine in a position of strength before entering into peace negotiations," Paula Pinho, chief spokesperson of the European Commission, told the Kyiv Independent.
Alisa Yurchenko
