According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), "favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields" have pushed up forecasts for Ukraine's harvest this year to 76.8 million tons.
The grain association, which represents producers, processors and exporters of Ukrainian grain, said that the updated estimate is 7.8 million tons higher than initial calculations.
Even though the total area sown is 2.2. million hectares smaller than last year, the association highlighted that they expect Ukrainian farmers to harvest 3 million tons more than in 2022.
Ukrainska Pravda reported that in June, the Agriculture Ministry had predicted a drop in the grain harvest in Ukraine this year by 5-7% compared to 2022.
UZA figures record a harvest of 73.8 million tons of grain and oil seed crops, like sunflower and flax, in 2022.
However, since the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal in July and Russia's repeated attacks on Ukraine's ports, the harvest is at risk of not being exported. Alternative export routes to the sea are "extremely important," said the UZA.
A Russian strike against Ukraine's Danube River port of Izmail in Odesa Oblast caused substantial damage to grain warehouses on Aug. 2.
The UZA has also "appealed to the European Commission to introduce compensation to European carriers for the transportation of Ukrainian grain from the border to European ports," as Ukrainian manufacturers are now forced to spend their resources on export logistics.
The association stated that "further obstacles to the export of grain from Ukraine" will directly correlate with an increase in food price inflation.
If Ukrainian farmers are unable to export in the long-term, the UZA believes that they will refuse to grow grain, "which will further deepen the crisis in the world food market."
Timothy Ash
