Ukraine, Russia may prolong war instead of finalizing bad peace deal, US intelligence assessment finds
Ukraine and Russia may see a greater incentive to prolong war instead of settling for an unfavourable peace deal, an unclassified U.S. intelligence assessment published March 25 found.
According to a report by U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, the leaders of Ukraine and Russia "for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement,” Bloomberg reported.
The intelligence assessment, presented at the Senate Intelligence Committee, falls in contrast with U.S. President Donald Trump's ambitions to quickly negotiate and secure a peace deal — as soon as by Easter.
Following discussions between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia, the two countries agreed on March 25 to implement a ceasefire in the Black Sea and a ban on strikes against energy infrastructure.
The Kremlin later issued a statement on March 25, stating that the ceasefire in the Black Sea will take effect only after Western sanctions on Russia's Rosselkhozbank and other financial organizations involved in supporting international food trade operations are lifted and have their connection to the SWIFT messaging system restored.
President Volodymyr Zelensky later accused Russia of manipulating the conditions it has set out in order to secure a Black Sea ceasefire agreement.
The intelligence report notes that both leaders likely understand the risks of a prolonged war, including continued economic disruptions for Moscow caused by sanctions that could harm Russia, including through "undesired escalation with the West."
According to the assessment, a protracted war would also impact Kyiv's standing on the battlefield, as well as potentially its future negotiating position.
As Russia continues to slowly gain territory in eastern Ukraine, "conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity,” the report notes.
The report also assess that the war "will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow," from Western allies.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that it is his commitment to end Russia's war in 2025, even suggesting that he was ready to step down as president if it means “peace for Ukraine."
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