Key Ukraine events (13-19 April): Easter ceasefire, security agreements with Gulf countries

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The week ahead will be shaped by uncertainty around a proposed Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Diplomatic activity may intensify, including a potential visit of U.S. envoys to Kyiv. At the same time, Ukraine is advancing security cooperation with Gulf states. The financial sector will observe the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

Ceasefire Prospects

All eyes in the coming days will be on the possible ceasefire announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin for Orthodox Easter. The Kremlin said hostilities would fully cease from 16:00 on April 11 through the end of April 12. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will mirror Russia's actions.

Kyiv had put forward a similar truce proposal the previous week, which was rejected by Moscow. Previous ceasefire arrangements during the full-scale war have consistently failed to hold, raising doubts as to whether this latest initiative will be fully observed.

Diplomatic Signals and US Engagement

The United States' envoys, Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, may visit Kyiv in the near future. President Zelensky confirmed that such a visit has been discussed, though no specific date has been agreed upon. In addition, a new round of trilateral negotiations could take place at a different location.

A tentative window for renewed diplomatic engagement with Russia appears to be opening amid reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which could temporarily ease broader geopolitical pressures.

Meanwhile, Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev reportedly met with Donald Trump during his visit to the United States. The talks may have focused on potential sanctions relief on Russian oil, which is set to expire on 11 April.

Ukraine-Middle East Security Cooperation

A meeting of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council is scheduled for 13 April to discuss a second wave of security agreements with Middle Eastern states. Under discussion are deals with Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Previously, Ukraine signed defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine is set to receive financial, energy, and technical assistance to help protect its infrastructure, in exchange for its support to Gulf nations in countering Iranian drone threats.

IMF and World Bank meetings

The Annual and Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group will take place from April 13 to 18. Also next week, the IMF is scheduled to publish its World Economic Outlook on 14 April, followed by the Fiscal Monitor on 15 April. The 9th Ukraine Ministerial Roundtable is also scheduled for 15 April.

Ukraine's parliament has only partially passed the legislation required by the IMF to unlock the next $3.35 billion tranche of financial assistance. A renewed attempt to approve the remaining measures is expected during the next plenary session, set to take place in a week.

Hungary's Elections and EU Decision-Making

The final days are ticking down ahead of Hungary's parliamentary elections, whose outcome could significantly influence developments in Ukraine. The ruling party, Fidesz, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is trailing the opposition party Tisza Party by 13 percentage points in the latest polls.

Hungary, under a prime minister widely seen as close to the Kremlin, continues to block key EU decisions important for Ukraine, including a €90 billion EU loan package and new sanctions against Russia.

The war in Iran is reshaping the economics of the war in Ukraine. Rising oil prices are boosting Russia's revenues, but the long-term outlook is uncertain. In our latest Ukraine Insights episode, Economist Timothy Ash explains what this means for 2026 and beyond. Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

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Events and Milestones:

Next week:

• 14 April. The 12th anniversary of the official launch of the Anti-Terrorist Operation in eastern Ukraine, announced in 2014.
• 14 April. Online event: Leveraging Logistics for Ukraine. Discuss logistics updates, request or offer humanitarian aid, share resources, and talk about what’s happening in the region. Register here.
• 16 April. Online event: How is the fuel crisis affecting the Ukrainian economy? April review of the Ukrainian economy by the Center for Economic Strategy, with a specific focus on the impact of the fuel crisis. Register here.
• 17 April. Firefighters' Day in Ukraine.

Further ahead:

• 22 April, Lviv/Online. Hybrid event: Recovery Construction Forum Ukraine 3.0. The forum brings together government representatives along with the construction community to discuss current challenges in the industry and effective coordination efforts towards the reconstruction of Ukraine. Register here.
• 22-23 April, Brussels. Offline event: EU-Ukraine Business Summit 2026. The Summit brings together policymakers, businesses, and financial institutions in Brussels for two days of high-level discussions, round tables, and interactive workshops. Register here.
• 27 April, London. Offline event: UK-UA Defense Tech Forum. The event enhances collaboration among Ukrainian, British, and international defense tech firms, alongside the VC community, to scale up production and accelerate R&D and innovation. Register here.
• 28 April, Online: The Ukraine Model: Lessons in Defense, Industry, & Innovation. KI Insights special presentation that offers a structured, high-level overview of what has made Ukrainian innovation effective under wartime conditions, which approaches are transferable to other contexts, and what developments to watch. More details here. Register here.
• 30 April, Online. Budgetary Permacrisis: Ukraine's fiscal challenges in 2026. KI Insights monthly briefing that includes a presentation by Research Editor, Alex Fynn, and the Kyiv Independent Economics Reporter, Luca Léry Moffat. More details here. Register here.