Editor's note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' The Week Ahead newsletter covering events from Nov. 18-Nov. 24. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events, delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.
The G20 Summit will take place in Brazil on Nov. 18-19. Brazil aims to use the summit to position itself as a lead voice for Latin America and the Global South. Foreign Minister Lavrov will represent Russia (Brazil’s Lula da Silva shifted responsibility over the ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin). US President Joe Biden and China’s leader Xi Jinping are both set to attend.
The G20 summit comes on the heels of the APEC meeting in Peru. China was at the center of multiple major topics discussed: fighting protectionism (and looming “Trump tariffs), Korean peninsula security (notably in light of North Korea’s entering the war), and Brazil’s economic pivot to Beijing.
The Verkhovna Rada has scheduled a plenary week for Nov. 19-22, during which the adoption of the 2025 budget is planned. The budget hinges on the president signing the tax hike bill passed by parliament over a month ago (which may be further delayed by prospects of elections).
The IMF mission currently in Ukraine emphasizes this necessity. However, the Rada committee meeting meant to approve the bill's final version was postponed from Friday to an unspecified date. Expect discussions on budget-connected issues next week: porn decriminalization (mostly as a distraction, but also for tax reasons), salaries for prosecutors and teachers, the road fund and local government finances, among others.
A second reading vote may take place on a bill defining the legal status of military paramedics, and another one streamlining the procedure for writing off military property (which could simplify decommissioning of various drones and ground-based electronic warfare kit).
The first round of Romania's presidential elections is set for Nov. 24. Current polls show Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu in the lead. Top contenders for the second round include Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), George Simion (AUR), and Elena Lasconi (USR). Despite Ciolacu's lead, polls suggest these three have a real chance of advancing to the runoff. Ciolacu is a strong advocate for Ukraine, supporting its EU and NATO aspirations.
The primary threat to Ukraine may be George Simion's potential advancement to the second round, given his far-right party's growing support. Simion is barred from entering Moldova and Ukraine for three years, partly due to suspected FSB connections. He staunchly opposes aid to Ukraine, especially military assistance. Reports indicate Russian interference attempts in the elections, involving the use of proxies and social media bot networks.
Other events and milestones:
- Nov. 20: "Ukrainska Pravda" to host "UP 100" where the publication will award 100 influential Ukrainians across the Public Administration, Sports, Society, Culture, Defense, and Business sectors.
- Zelensky to present internal victory strategy next week, covering 10 key areas including energy, defense, and culture. Plan details are to be refined with business and civil society input.
Jakub Parusinski
