Weeks after Ukraine received its first batch of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets from European allies and more than a year after President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of test trials on Sweden’s prestigious Gripen multipurpose variants, Stockholm signaled that their possible transfer to Ukraine remains on the table.
Known to be light and highly maneuverable, the JAS 39 Gripen can conduct offensive and defensive operations. It is equipped to carry various weapons, from Meteor air-to-air missiles to Taurus cruise missiles and guided bombs. But unlike the older and war-tested F-16s, the NATO-standard fighter jets, which have an abbreviation of the Swedish words Jakt, Attack och Spaning (hunting, attack, and reconnaissance), lack quantity.
Sweden’s Defense Ministry on Sept. 9 announced the inclusion of Gripen jet spare parts in its latest military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $443 million.
While providing Ukraine with Gripen jets is ruled out for now, Sweden is acquiring parts for the JAS 39 Gripen worth approximately $221 million, according to the ministry.
"By acquiring new materiel parts, a number of JAS 39C/D will be saved from being dismantled and can – if the Swedish government decides so – be considered for a possible future donation to Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement.
Talks on near-term supplies of Gripens are “on pause” for now, according to a source at the Air Force who asked for anonymity to speak without authorization of the higher command.
The Air Force source told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine and Western allies considered multiple options of jets but F-16 was chosen due to wide availability of the actual planes and spare parts. The source elaborated that there are only up to 20 Gripen jets that Sweden can realistically provide to Ukraine.
"That's why the decision was made to work with (the integration of) F-16s for now, and when the time comes, we can consider it,” the source said, suggesting that Stockholm may be acquiring “necessary components to make (the Gripen) combat-ready” while there is still time.
The Swedish Defense Ministry also said that transferring Gripens to Ukraine is currently "not a viable option, as it would interfere with the prioritized introduction of F-16 fighters," but Sweden is willing to prepare the conditions to send Gripen jets to Ukraine in the future.
In comments to the Kyiv Independent, the Swedish Defense Ministry said Stockholm has not made a decision on whether "Gripen should be donated or not," and doesn't have a timeframe on the potential transfer.
"A future decision depends on the ability to maintain Swedish security and Ukraine's ability to receive Gripen fighters," and a donation would require cooperation with other countries to introduce a new aircraft in Ukraine.
Sweden’s Sept. 9 announcement is a “preparation” to get Gripens ready for the potential transfer to Ukraine one day, according to former Swedish pilot and Lieutenant Colonel Stefan Wilson.
Sweden currently has 96 Gripens, but “it doesn’t mean that all of them are ready for combat use and “might indicate that you can launch half of them to start with,” said Wilson, who teaches at the Swedish Defence University.
“That’s why if you receive 20, you can't count to fly with all those 20 all the time, (it is) impossible,” Wilson said.
Wilson also stressed that the aircraft alone would not be a game-changer, adding that its effectiveness depends on its weapons.
Ukraine continues to pressure Western allies to provide more long-range weapons, including missiles fired from land and aircraft.
The U.K. and France have since last year provided Ukraine’s Air Force with long-range cruise missiles that can be fired from aircraft, the Storm Shadows and Scalps, respectively.
But Berlin has thus far refused to provide Taurus, a joint German-Swedish-made cruise missile that can travel up to over 500 kilometers. Washington is considering supplying Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles, and the talks are in “advanced stages,” according to a source close to the Zelensky administration.
However distant Ukraine’s hunt for longer-range missiles may be, Kyiv continues to campaign for more high-class Western fighter jets to draw a wild card in competing against an enemy equipped with significantly more resources in terms of firepower and manpower.
Asami Terajima
‘The Pride of Sweden’
Earlier in July, Ukraine received its first small batch of the American F-16 fighter jets. The quantity was not disclosed, but they only arrived a year after U.S. President Joe Biden greenlighted allies’ request to transfer their F-16s to Ukraine. One was already lost in action.
Speaking with the Kyiv Independent, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in February that the Nordic country is open to providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets.
In a July interview with the Ukrainian-language Voice of America, then-Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said the pause on the possible transfer of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine “has nothing to do with the Swedish government's decision.”
“Such a decision was made due to the fact that Ukraine came to the conclusion that having two fighter systems at the same time – both F-16 and Gripen – is too much,” he told Voice of America.
Ukraine is open to receiving the Gripen jets even if the near-term priority is on F-16s, the Air Force source said.
“Ukraine is not refusing any help, but the priority is on F-16s, and many countries are now ready to provide more F-16s, and we need to prepare the people and the infrastructure so this procedure will be step by step,” the Air Force source said.
Visiting Sweden in August 2023, Zelensky described Gripen fighter jets – manufactured by the Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab AB and in service since 1996 – as “the pride of Sweden.”
A number of countries operate the Gripens, including Czechia, Hungary, South Africa, and Brazil. Thailand announced in late August that it would acquire Gripens to renew its older fleet.
Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi said that the Air Force has considered the JAS 39 Gripen as a promising option for service since 2015, as “it outperformed in terms of maintenance costs and infrastructure modernization.”
Khrapchynskyi estimated that Ukraine needs “at least five or six full squadrons of modern multi-role fighter jets, which is around 132 aircraft,” agreeing with the Air Force that F-16s are more favorable given the aircraft and spare part availability.
The experts say that Gripens and F-16s are quite similar since they belong to the same class of aircraft, but the Swedish fighter jet can take off from shorter runways, while F-16s need a length “quite similar” to that of airfields for civilian use.
“In fact, Sweden’s military doctrine includes the use of military equipment in any challenging conditions, even landing on regular, non-equipped roads,” Khrapchynskyi said.
“The Gripen is constructed from the beginning to be able to land on regular car roads that are, let's say, 1,000 meters long, and at that car road, they can prepare for the next mission,” Swedish expert Wilson said. A makeshift runway would be “really hard for the Russians to find,” he added.
The biggest difference between the two modern jets is that the Gripen requires less time on the ground and has the capacity to fly longer, according to Wilson. The jets share similar weapon capacity, but the Gripen is “easier to adopt” for pilots because information is better sorted out than in F-16s, he added.
Whether it comes to Gripen or F-16s, knowing the precise targets is important for them to be effective when using high-precision weapons because they will “hit exactly where you pointed,” according to the Swedish expert. He added that the situation is the same for a scenario where the jets are trying to shoot down incoming Russian missiles to defend cities like Kyiv.
“If you don't know where to look at exactly which time for that cruise missile, they won’t find it,” Wilson said.
Experts say pilot skills define how effective the Western jets operate.
“It’s important to understand that, with the existing fleet provided by partners, much depends on the pilot, the planned operation, and coordination with other defense forces,” Khrapchynskyi said.
“In any case, both the F-16 and JAS 39 Gripen will significantly enhance our capabilities.”
