Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine, European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said in an interview with LRT broadcaster published on May 26, stressing Europe must stop relying on the United States to ensure that remains the case.
In the interview, Kubilius said the EU must be ready to defend Ukraine and itself with or without Washington's backing.
While U.S. support has been vital, Kubilius said that the EU's long-term security depends on its own strategic and industrial strength, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled he may walk away from peace efforts unless progress is made.
"450 million Europeans should not be begging 340 million Americans to protect Europe from 140 million Russians who cannot take on 38 million Ukrainians," Kubilius said.
Kubilius said Europe has matched the U.S. in aid to Ukraine — around 60 billion euros ($68 billion) over the last three years, including the U.K. and Norway — yet still hesitates to take full ownership of the war's outcome.
Recent findings from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy also reported that total assistance — military and civilian — allocated by Europe to Ukraine since 2022 actually exceeds that of the U.S. by 23 billion euros ($26 billion).
"The annual support is about 20 billion euros ($23 billion) each. Twenty billion on the European side and 20 billion on the American side is less than 0.1% of GDP for both," Kubilius noted. "We are spending 3% or 3.5% on our own defense, and we are spending less than 0.1% on the defense of Ukraine."
Europe must prepare for a world in which U.S. involvement in its defense wanes, Kubilius argued. While he emphasized the importance of avoiding a "chaotic divorce" with Washington, he said the EU must develop a clear and independent defense policy.
"It is far worse to be unprepared or to go into an angry and chaotic divorce with the Americans," he said. "It is better for us to come up with a clear plan of what we want from the Americans over the next decade, avoid chaos, than to be constantly begging them to stay and be completely unprepared and then face a full-scale crisis.”
Kubilius said this included developing the EU's own defense industry.
"Up to now, when Europeans were buying weapons, only 20% of their purchases were coming from European industry, while over 65% were coming from the U.S.," Kubilius noted.
Asked whether the EU has a plan if the U.S. withdraws support for Ukraine, Kubilius said Europe is not helpless. According to him, a 150-billion-euro ($170 billion) EU loan facility could provide new channels to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities and defense sector — if member states are willing to act.
"Yes, Ukraine needs support. Yes, that support can come from the European Union together with America. Without America, too, we need to think about how we are going to do it," he said. "There is no other way."
As ceasefire talks stall and U.S. diplomatic efforts show little progress — including Trump's recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which yielded no commitment to a truce — Ukraine has renewed its calls for more European aid, particularly in air defense.
Martin Fornusek
(Updated: )
