Ukrainian military: Russia concentrating forces along southern front

Russia is concentrating its forces in the southern sector of the war against Ukraine, Southern Opeational Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk, said on live Ukrainian television on Jan. 28.

Despite this, Russia is struggling to draw the reserves required for a significant offensive, partly due to Ukrainian strikes on supply routes, Humeniuk said.

According to Humeniuk, Moscow is increasing drawing upon its “mobilization resource”, troops that had been previously engaged in occupying Ukraine’s southern territories, rather than fighting on the front lines, earlier in the war.

There are no signs of a large-scale Russian offensive being prepared in the area, another spokesperson for the southern command said a day earlier.

These statements come amid news about an imminent large-scale offensive planned by Russian forces, and expected in the early spring.

According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, reports about localized Russian offensives near the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia are false.

“ISW has not seen any visual confirmation that Russian forces have captured any settlements in the area and continues to assess that Russian sources likely made these claims to distract from the lack of meaningful progress in the Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut,” the statement from Jan. 28 reads.

According to ISW, the much-awaited Russian spring offensive will most likely take place in the Donbas region.

“Russia is redeploying elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division from Belarus to Luhansk Oblast,” which, according to ISW, suggests the planned Russian offensive is most likely aimed at the Luhansk Oblast or Vuhledar area in western Donetsk Oblast.