ISW: Belarus unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics within country

Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko does not intend to enter the war in Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed domestic unrest if his security apparatus is weakened through participation in a costly war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in the latest report. Lukashenko relied upon elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces in addition to Belarusian security services to quell popular protests against his rule in 2020 and 2021. 

"Committing a substantial amount of that security apparatus to the war in Ukraine would likely leave Lukashenko open to renewed unrest and resistance," the ISW found. "Lukashenko is also likely aware that invading Ukraine would undermine his credibility as the leader of a sovereign country as it would be evident that Russia’s effort to secure full control of Belarus had succeeded."