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Does Trump have red lines with Russia? The question has experts stumped

by Chris York and Andrea Januta April 8, 2025 8:37 PM 4 min read
U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., U.S. on April 7, 2025. (Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images)
by Chris York and Andrea Januta April 8, 2025 8:37 PM 4 min read
This audio is created with AI assistance

He's been "pissed off," "not happy," and "very angry," but so far, U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to take any concrete action to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a full ceasefire.

Trump has multiple forms of leverage he could use against the Kremlin — increasing military aid to Ukraine, strengthening the enforcement of existing sanctions, or imposing additional tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil.

So far, Trump has used none of it, and aside from a few angry statements, he is letting Putin wage war unabated.

Trump took office vowing to bring a swift end to the war in Ukraine, plans that Kyiv was eager to get on board with.

Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire on March 11, saying it was ready to take such a step if Russia also agreed to the terms.

To date, and nearly one month later, Russia has refused.

Instead, Moscow agreed to a partial energy ceasefire in the Black Sea and in relation to strikes on energy infrastructure — two theaters of the war in which Ukraine has been pummelling Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone attacks against Ukraine have continued in devastating fashion — one strike in Kryvyi Rih on April 4 killed 20 people, including nine children.

"I'm not happy about what's going on with the bombing because they're bombing like crazy right now," Trump said on April 7 at the White House.

"They're bombing — I don't know what's happening there."

We asked three experts if Trump actually has a red line with Russia and what they think it would take for him to finally take action against the Kremlin.

The aftermath of a Russian attack against Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, on April 4, 2025. (President Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram)
A man with a boy lays flowers at a playground to commemorate victims of a Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, on April 5, 2025. (Oksana Parafeniuk / For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Ivo Daalder

political scientist and former U.S. permanent representative to NATO

I am not sure President Trump has a red line when it comes to Russian actions.

Aside from saying he would be 'pissed off' if Putin refused to end the war, he and his administration have taken positions that clearly favor Russia and disfavor Ukraine, including blaming Kyiv for starting the war, conceding the Russian narrative on Crimea and the four oblasts Moscow wants to annex, excluding the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, temporarily halting military and intelligence aid, and seeking to recoup past expenditures and much more by effectively seizing Ukraine's mineral and natural resource wealth.

Rather than drawing a clear red line, Trump is more likely to tire from the conflict and move on to other matters even while the war continues.

Mariana Budjeryn

senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School

I don't have a good response to your question about the White House and red lines — unpredictability seems to be the name of the game with the current administration.

The Trump administration's initial ambition was to impose a ceasefire and/or negotiate the end of war settlement quickly. It is proving harder than anticipated as Russia clearly does not intend to abandon its maximalist goals.

What is happening here is not exactly Russia crossing Trump's red lines but rather upsetting Trump's plans for quick war termination. How he will react remains to be seen.

He can double down and entirely sacrifice Ukraine, he can turn against Russia just as suddenly as he turned U.S. policy toward Russia, or he can refocus his attention elsewhere (trade wars, Greenland, Canada, etc) and let the war drag along without U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

All of these options are feasible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Russia's minister of culture in Moscow, Russia, on April 4, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev / Pool / AFP via Getty Images)

Jenny Mathers

Russian political expert and lecturer at the U.K.'s Aberystwyth University

You asked what might be a red line for Trump as far as Putin's behavior is concerned.

I don't think you will find that red line — if it exists at all — in continuing brutality against Ukraine, including violating the ceasefire terms, attacking civilian targets, and killing children.

These things just don't register with Trump as Putin's crimes since he seems to blame Ukraine for not giving in to Putin and giving him what he wants.

It would be a different story, though, if Putin does something that makes Trump look foolish, publicly humiliates Trump in some way, or perhaps makes the U.S. look foolish.

Otherwise, Trump is likely to accept any kind of behavior from Putin without retaliation.

Did you notice how quickly Trump walked back his comment about being annoyed with Putin for not being ready for a peace deal?

Trump realizes that he is being played and that Putin is just using delaying tactics to get what he wants, but Trump evidently regards that with some admiration, as one card sharp might admire the skill of another.

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