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Russia lacks the strength and means to invade Ukraine from Belarus in the next 2-3 weeks, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry.
On Feb. 18, the directorate reported that military intelligence is closely monitoring the movement of Russian troops on Belarusian soil and their attempts to fully engage Belarus in the war with Ukraine.
Despite the prospect of an attack from the Belarusian border being unlikely, Ukrainian troops remain on alert.
"We understand Belarus's efforts are to support Russia and refrain from joining the war themselves, but we also know how much Russia is pressuring them," Andriy Chernyak, a spokesperson for military intelligence, told ITV on Feb. 17.
According to Chernyak, the intelligence directorate's understanding is that if Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko orders the Belarusian troops to fight against Ukrainians, they will obey.