As the outgoing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden rushes to provide last-minute aid to Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office in January, the State Department has recently announced a $266 million maintenance sales package for Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets.
Trump has made no public comments about the Ukrainian F-16 fleet, but his expected intent to reduce support for Kyiv and get his country "out" of the war poses a question: what will become of Ukraine's U.S.-made jets if Washington withdraws?
F-16s, the fifth-generation fighter jets, have been vital in Ukraine’s effort to build a modern Air Force. Taking them out of the game could weaken Ukraine’s air defense, leaving the country more vulnerable to Russian aerial strikes.
The Netherlands and Denmark were the first to provide Ukraine with the F-16s earlier this year, with the Danish government announcing the delivery of their second batch on Dec. 7. Norway and Belgium also pledged to provide the aircraft from their stocks as they pivot toward more advanced F-35s.
While the U.S. has not provided any planes from its arsenal, it plays a key role in training Ukrainian pilots and providing maintenance support.
The recently announced U.S. military sales package includes a wide range of maintenance-related systems, such as weapons software, spare parts for jets, and the Joint Mission Planning System (JMPS).
Since the F-16 is a U.S.-made system, European allies need Washington’s authorization to be able to provide the jets to Ukraine. This means the Trump administration could, in theory, halt even the European supplies of F-16s.
Asami Terajima
Can Europe fill the gap?
If the U.S. stops all further F-16 upkeep aid, Ukraine's European allies will likely be capable of compensating if they increase funding.
"Europeans can compensate for it if they want to, but Americans must approve their third-party transfer," Peter Layton, a former Australian Air Force officer, associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and visiting fellow at Griffith Asia Institute, told the Kyiv Independent.
"If the Trump administration withdraws authorization for the use of F-16s, the U.S. could block any future aid," the expert explained. "In this case, the situation will be very difficult."
According to Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at RUSI, another issue is the limited personnel that can train and maintain F-16s in European countries.
“Unlike the Americans, Europeans don’t have as many personnel available, and most of them have been redeployed from flying and maintaining their F-16s to managing their new F-35 aircraft," Layton said.
"So, Europeans would need to put the personnel back from the new aircraft to assist Ukrainians with the older F-16s. I think this would directly impact European capabilities for using F-35 jets."
Impact on the front line
Many observers have pointed out that the F-16s are not wonder weapons – they can’t, in their current numbers, ensure Ukraine’s superiority in the air. But these jets are still valuable assets that enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities.
F-16s are used in both offensive and defensive operations.
The aircraft have been used for intercepting Russian missiles and drones during aerial strikes against Ukraine. They could also be deployed to launch missiles and bombs at Russian positions along the front line.
"If you take F-16s essentially out of the equation for now, you probably wouldn’t see significant changes in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the short term," Bronk said.
Ukrainian pilots are still overcoming initial obstacles related to adopting a new weapons system, approaches, and style, "particularly in how they manage the radar system," Bronk said, referring to the case of a Ukrainian F-16 crashing during a mission in August.
"It’s also a challenge to transfer experienced pilots to F-16s for tasks like intercepting Shaheds or cruise missiles at night. The workflow is very different from the MiG-29 or Su-27, for example," the expert added.
In the medium term, however, Ukraine could see a "significant degradation in the effort to build an Air Force," Bronk said.
Ukraine could potentially consider European solutions, such as the Mirage 2000 jets pledged by France or Swedish Gripen jets.
Ukraine is expected to receive only three Mirage jets in early 2025, while the possible delivery of Swedish Gripen jets hasn’t been approved yet.
However, Bronk notes that the Mirage 2000 is not ideal for Ukraine’s defense needs due to its radar missile limitations. Meanwhile, transferring to yet another platform would require more time and effort, costing Ukraine precious time.
Oleg Sukhov
