Key developments on Aug. 21:
- Ukraine destroys 3, damages around 5 Russian aircraft in recent attack, source says
- Russia has dropped 27 guided bombs on Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's military claims
- Russia plans to respond to Ukraine's Kursk Oblast incursion, military intelligence says
- Kremlin trying to convince the public that Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is 'new normal,' Meduza reports
- Both Ukraine and Russia unable to launch major offensives, Pentagon report says
Ukraine's attack on the Savasleyka airbase in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast on Aug. 16 destroyed three Russian planes and damaged around five others, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on Aug. 21.
Russian warplanes based at the Savasleyka airfield include MiG-31K aircraft, a carrier of Kinzhalballistic missiles that Russia uses to attack Ukraine.
According to the source, the kamikaze drones operated by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) destroyed a Russian MiG-31K/I and two Il-76 aircraft and damaged about five aircraft, possibly including one more MiG-31K/I.
The previous strike on the Savasleyka airbase, carried out by HUR on Aug. 13, hit a Russian fuel and lubricants warehouse and damaged a MiG-31K/I plane, the source told the Kyiv Independent.
Explosions were also reported at the Borisoglebsk and Baltimore airbases in Voronezh Oblast overnight on Aug. 14. Ukraine's General Staff confirmed the attack, saying that Su-34 fighter-bombers, Su-35 fighters, and other aircraft were based on the three said airfields.
Eleven MIG-31K/I aircraft, an Il-76, five Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters were stationed at the Savasleyka at the time of the strike, the source said, citing the agency's satellite images.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.
Ukraine has carried out a number of strikes against airbases in an effort to weaken the more powerful Russian Air Force. An attack against an airbase in Lipetsk Oblast on Aug. 9 destroyed more than 700 bombs, a Ukrainian intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia has dropped 27 guided bombs on Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's military claims
Russian aircraft have dropped 27 guided aerial bombs on settlements in embattled Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's General Staff said in its latest update on Aug. 21.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Kyiv had advanced between 28-35 kilometers (18-21 miles) into Russia's Kursk Oblast as the unprecedented incursion entered its third week. According to Syrskyi, Ukraine has captured 1,263 square kilometers (488 square miles) of Russian territory and 93 settlements.
Russian forces have conducted at least 17 airstrikes against Kursk Oblast, using guided aerial bombs, Ukraine's military said on Aug. 21.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Moscow launched a total of 750 guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian cities and villages last week.
Guided aerial bombs, while having a shorter range than missiles, are cheaper to produce and are launched from aircraft within Russian territory or Russian-occupied territories, beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defense.
Russia also continues shelling border settlements in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, which borders Russia's Kursk Oblast, including the villages of Porozok and Poznia. Ukrainian authorities are planning to evacuate a total of 45,000 residents from the region amid intensified Russian attacks.
Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk published a video on Aug. 21 purporting to show Ukrainian pilots' attacks on Russian troops who are "actively occupying civilian facilities" in Kursk Oblast.
"We see everything, we know everything. Our precision bombs will get you everywhere," Oleshchuk said.
Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on Aug. 14 that Ukraine’s military is creating a "security zone" on Russian territory to protect Ukrainian border areas. Vereshchuk said that Ukraine would be conducting humanitarian operations in the area, including creating safe corridors for civilians to evacuate — both toward Ukraine and to other parts of Russia.
International humanitarian organizations will also be allowed to enter the area to support the civilian population and monitor the situation, she added.
Chris York
Russia plans to respond to Ukraine's Kursk Oblast incursion, military intelligence says
Russia is planning to respond to Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast, Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency, said during an event in Kyiv on Aug. 21, Lb.ua media outlet reported.
"The operation is ongoing. Russia is planning a response. There are plans, we know about them. Our government and military leadership know about them so they can continue it (the operation) and disrupt the (Russian) plans," Skibitsky said.
According to Skibitsky, Kyiv's incursion into Kursk Oblast will "change a lot" in the world's attitude towards Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine would not need to launch the incursion into Kursk Oblast if partners had allowed Kyiv to use Western-supplied long-range weapons against targets on Russian soil.
Ukraine did not disclose preparations for an operation to the country's allies because the world might consider it crossing Russia's "strictest of all red lines," he said.
Kyiv said that rather than capturing Russian territory, the incursion aims to protect Ukrainian lives by preventing cross-border attacks and diverting Russian reinforcements.
Oleg Sukhov
Kremlin trying to convince public that Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is 'new normal,' Meduza reports
The Kremlin is using state media and propaganda to convince the Russian public that Ukrainian troops on its soil are the "new normal" as it comes to terms with the idea it may not be able to push Kyiv's forces out in the immediate future, Meduza reported on Aug. 21.
Citing sources close to the government, the outlet says three narrative lines have been drawn up and being pushed out – an acknowledgment that Ukraine did indeed cross the border into Kursk Oblast, that they will inevitably be defeated, but that this will take time and the Russian public needs to be patient.
Two sources close to the Russian presidential administration said that inside the Kremlin, the initial shock at the incursion has now passed, and people have since "got used to it."
The Kremlin expects a "quite optimistic" scenario of several months of fighting to regain the territory, and efforts now are aimed at placating the Russian population and getting them used to this timeline.
"During a shock, and this was certainly a shock, there are always jumps (in public alarm), then people get used to it, and everything settles down," one of the sources said.
"What happened during (Wagner boss Yevgeny) Prigozhin's mutiny, mobilization, and at the beginning of the war? But everything settled down."
Russia's normally slick propaganda machine has struggled to cope with the Kursk incursion.
When Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border on Aug. 6, Russia's immediate response was to downplay the incursion, and state media shows were filled with mixed and sometimes contradictory messaging.
Andreas Umland
Both Ukraine and Russia unable to launch major offensives, Pentagon report says
Ukraine and Russia both lack the means to mount major offensives, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in a quarterly report covering the three-month period ending June 30, quoted by Bloomberg on Aug. 21.
Suggesting the war is headed for a stalemate, the report says that despite the stalled U.S. aid package passed earlier this year, Ukraine is only capable of defensive operations.
In turn, Russia does not have the resources to "threaten a deeper advance into Ukrainian-held territory, such as Kharkiv city," according to the report.
Since the end of the period covered by the report, Ukraine has launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and now reportedly holds 1,263 square kilometers (488 square miles) of Russian territory.
The report echoes sentiments aired by U.S. officials in public.
Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on June 21 that negotiations are needed to stop Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot be trusted."
In a talk at Princeton University, Milley said that from a military perspective, the war was now at a stalemate, with Russia unable to achieve its original goals.
"It is unlikely that anyone will be able to achieve a political solution through military means," he said in the comments reported by Voice of America.
"Therefore, both sides should recognize this and achieve an alternative method to solve their political problem, and that would be a negotiation."
