Ukraine election poll shows tight first round, decisive Zaluzhnyi runoff win over Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine's ambassador to the U.K., former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, would advance to a second round if presidential elections were held in the near future, according to a SOCIS poll published on Dec. 24.

The poll comes as Ukrainian lawmakers begin preparing legislation for the possibility of holding elections under martial law, following Zelensky's instruction to draft the necessary legal framework.

According to the survey, Zelensky would receive 22% of the vote in the first round, narrowly ahead of Zaluzhnyi's 21%. A significant share of respondents — 24.1% — said they were undecided, an increase from 21.1% recorded in October.

In a hypothetical runoff between the two, Zaluzhnyi would secure a decisive victory, winning 64% of the vote compared to Zelensky's 36%, according to the poll.

If Zaluzhnyi were not to run, the second round would likely pit Zelensky against Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence. In that scenario, Budanov would defeat Zelensky with 56% of the vote against 44%.

The poll surveyed 2,000 respondents using a stratified quota sample. The research was conducted through face-to-face interviews, utilizing the Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing method.

The results come amid renewed debate in Kyiv over elections during wartime.

Zelensky said in December that he is prepared to hold elections while the war continues, but only if Ukraine's allies can guarantee security — a condition that would require Russia to agree to a ceasefire.

Security remains the central obstacle to holding a nationwide vote, but it is not the only challenge.

According to U.N. figures, more than six million Ukrainians have fled abroad since the start of Russia's all-out war, while another 3.7 million are internally displaced, complicating voter participation.

Under current Ukrainian law, elections are prohibited during a state of martial law. They could take place only if martial law is lifted or if parliament amends the legislation.

Earlier this week, the Ukrainian parliament formed a special working group to draft laws governing elections during and after the war.

Parliamentary Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said the legislation would be used only once.

Ukraine's Central Election Commission also resumed work on the state voter register on Dec. 23, marking the first such step since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

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