Russian assault intensity declines, focus on Pokrovsk sector, monitoring group reports

The intensity of Russian assault operations in Ukraine is declining but remains high, according to an analysis by the monitoring group DeepState, published on Jan. 28.

Russian forces have concentrated 44% of their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, a crucial logistics hub for Ukrainian troops in Donetsk Oblast.

The peak intensity of Russian offensives was recorded in the second half of December, following a surge in attacks that began in late November.

Although the pace has slowed somewhat since the New Year, DeepState recorded the following attack numbers: 5,205 in November, 6,247 in December, and 4,304 in January as of Jan. 27.

Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian forces have reportedly been able to replenish their combat strength, allowing them to sustain attacks across multiple front-line sectors.

As part of this effort, Russia has intensified assaults near Pokrovsk, deploying small groups in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops, Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces, said on Jan. 27.

The town of Kurakhove has also been a target. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Jan. 6 that its forces had fully captured the settlement, though Ukraine has not confirmed this.

Russian forces also claimed on Jan. 26 to have captured Velyka Novosilka, a strategically significant settlement in the western part of Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade acknowledged withdrawing from parts of the village to avoid encirclement.

The Kursk sector accounted for 13% of assaults, while 10% occurred in the Lyman sector.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi in November described the ongoing offensive as "one of the most powerful" since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Ukraine's General Staff reported continued Russian offensives along multiple axes, including Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove.

Throughout the autumn, Russian forces made operational gains in southern Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Chasiv Yar and Kupiansk.

Despite their persistent offensives, Russian forces have not achieved a major breakthrough, while Ukrainian defenses remain under constant pressure across multiple front-line sectors.

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