Russia has depleted much of its Soviet-era military-industrial stockpile, with remaining equipment in poor condition, the independent media outlet The Insider reported on Jan. 28.
The Russian military has lost more than half of its available equipment, and unless an unexpected shift occurs, hostilities could gradually fade by late 2025 or early 2026 due to a shortage of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, the publication claims.
This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Russia to "make a deal" to end the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since said Moscow is ready to hold talks with Trump.
The Insider reported that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are primarily losing Soviet-era equipment, with Russian losses now accounting for about 50% of its total stock. Much of the remaining equipment in storage is in poor technical condition, making it unlikely to be repaired and deployed to the front lines.
The number of combat-ready vehicles Russia could still send to the front is estimated at around 2,000 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs), and 3,000 armored personnel carriers (APCs).
Moscow is also reportedly facing production limitations. The only infantry fighting vehicle in large-scale production remains the BMP-3, with 463 units produced in 2023. Modern BTR-82 armored personnel carrier production is estimated at 300–400 units annually.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
The decline in Russia's equipment stockpile coincides with a slowdown in assault operations in Ukraine, though fighting remains intense, according to the monitoring group DeepState.
As of late January, 44% of Russian attacks have been concentrated in the Pokrovsk sector, a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk Oblast. The peak of Russia's offensives occurred in December, following a surge in late November.
Amid these trends, U.S. peace envoy Keith Kellogg suggested on Jan. 24 that tighter restrictions on Russia's oil industry could pressure the Kremlin to negotiate.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier on Dec. 29 expressed dissatisfaction with Trump's team's reported peace proposals, particularly the idea of freezing hostilities along the current line of contact.
Putin later reiterated his claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has "no right to sign any documents" in potential negotiations, reaffirming that Russia is prepared to hold talks with Trump.
Martin Fornusek
(Updated: )
