North Korea is currently providing Russia with weapons worth up to $5.5 billion, according to a study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, published on Oct. 28.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Pyongyang has significantly increased its arms supplies to its longtime ally, Moscow, fueling its aggression against Ukraine. This fall, North Korea also sent troops to participate in the war on Russia's side, as confirmed by Ukrainian military intelligence.
Because North Korea and Russia do not publish official statistics on the country's bilateral trade, there is uncertainty. But even the minimum estimate of shipments is over $1.7 billion, the study reads.
North Korea's revenues could increase by "hundreds of millions of dollars," as Pyongyang will receive money for sending soldiers. Meanwhile, the deployment of more than 20,000 North Korean soldiers seems "unlikely," as it could jeopardize the stability of the North Korean regime. The risk of desertion and human resource constraints also stand in the way, according to the research.
The tightening of relations between Russia and North Korea is also reflected in "a notable rise" in diplomatic visits. Media analysis shows that since July 2023, there have been an average of two monthly high-level meetings. In 2024, there have already been over 24 such meetings. In the past three decades, the norm was less than five meetings, the study read.
"Russia is turning to North Korea primarily because of its massive need for ammunition," Olena Guseinova, the study's author, said.
"Russia is using its relationship with North Korea – and the potential transfer of military technology – as a tool to test the unity of Western alliances, particularly in East Asia. Russia aims to pressure countries like South Korea and Japan into reconsidering their support for Ukraine," Guseinova added.
James Beardsworth
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