Key developments on May 16:
- Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement
- Up to 640,000 Russian troops fighting against Ukraine, Syrskyi says
- Ukraine 'lost contact' with F-16 during combat, pilot ejected, Air Force says
- Putin appoints general who led Mariupol assault as new Russian Ground Forces Commander
- Explosions rock occupied Crimea as drone attack reportedly sets Russian ammo depot on fire
Ukrainian and Russian delegations concluded their talks in Istanbul on May 16 after speaking for less than two hours, with no agreement reached on a full, 30-day ceasefire, and Moscow demanding Kyiv withdraw completely from Ukraine's four oblasts that President Vladimir Putin claims to have annexed.
A source in the Ukrainian President's Office briefed on the talks confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Moscow's delegation insisted that Ukraine retreat from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.
The Kremlin illegally declared the annexation of the four oblasts following sham referenda in late 2022, incorporating them into Russia’s constitution — a move that holds no weight internationally.
Despite the demands, the source said the Ukrainian delegation's "impression was that (the Russian) delegation simply didn’t have any real authority."
"They now need to return to Moscow, just to figure out what they can even say in response to what they heard here," they added.
According to the source, during the talks, Ukraine offered an immediate ceasefire, an all-for-all prisoner exchange and to hold a face-to-face meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin.
In one positive development, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine's delegation, told reporters after the talks on May 16.
"We know the date, but we're not going to say it yet," he said.
Soon after, Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, confirmed the agreed exchange in comments to Russian state media.
After the talks ended, Zelensky and several top European leaders held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, the Ukrainian leader announced on Telegram.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined Zelensky during the call.
"Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions," Zelensky wrote.
"If the Russians refuse a complete and unconditional stop to the fire and killings, there must be strong sanctions. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war."
Soon after, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed the condemnation of Russia's unwillingness to stop the fighting.
"The Russians in Istanbul have de facto broken off negotiations and refused to cease fire," Tusk wrote on X. "Time to increase the pressure."
No further details were provided about the content or duration of the call.
"Trump still hopes something can be done," the source in the President’s Office said.
According to the source, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg see the situation as it is. The same source said that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is, in turn, "overpromising."
Later on May 16, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for new sanctions against Russia, she said during the European Political Community Summit.
The European Commission is preparing a new sanctions package, which would include sanctions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, additional listings of vessels from Russia's shadow fleet, a lower oil price cap, and sanctions on Russia's financial sector, von der Leyen announced.
Ukraine and Russia have agreed in principle to hold a follow-up meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced, according to the country's state-run Anadolu Agency.
"The parties have agreed in principle to come together again," Fidan said.
Kateryna Hodunova
After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, Zelensky agreed and invited Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Medinsky, to lead the talks.
The Russian delegation included deputy ministers and lower-level aides and excluded top officials like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Zelensky commented that Moscow has dispatched a "sham delegation," while Western officials presented the move as an indication that Putin is not serious about peace efforts.
Though Zelensky has since then left for Albania, a Ukrainian delegation, including Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Umerov, has arrived in Istanbul to meet the Russian delegates.
The Ukrainian delegation also held meetings with U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier in the day.
Kyiv and its allies have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional ceasefire starting May 12 as the first step toward peace talks — a proposal Russia has ignored.
While Ukrainian officials said they hope to discuss a possible truce in Istanbul, Russia presented the meeting as the continuation of the 2022 talks and stressed the need to address what it sees as the "root causes" of the war.
Alex Cadier
Up to 640,000 Russian troops fighting against Ukraine, Syrskyi says
Russia has deployed up to 640,000 soldiers in combat against Ukraine, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said at the NATO-Ukraine Council on May 15.
Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), reported in March that Russia had deployed 620,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a rise from his previous estimate of nearly 580,000 in November 2024.
"Moscow has turned its aggression against Ukraine into a war of attrition and is using a combined force of up to 640,000 troops," Syrskyi told members of the NATO-Ukraine Council.
"Our soldiers continue to conduct an effective defense operation, inflicting significant losses on the enemy."
The total number of Russian military personnel marks a growing trend, as Russia continues to intensify operations in various regions of the front line.
The Financial Times reported on May 13, citing undisclosed Ukrainian intelligence officials, that Russia appears to be preparing a significant offensive despite expected ceasefire talks this week and calls by Kyiv and its partners for an unconditional 30-day truce.
Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine and Kursk Oblast in recent months, but at the cost of heavy casualties as well as equipment losses.
As of May 15, Russia has lost a total of 970,590 troops since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine's General Staff reported. The estimate, which is broadly in line with estimates made by Western intelligence agencies, likely includes those killed, captured, wounded, and missing.
On Feb. 24, independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated in a report that around 165,000 Russian troops have been killed since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including nearly 100,000 in 2024.
President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on Feb. 15 that Moscow had lost around 250,000 soldiers, with 20,000 killed in battles for Russia's Kursk Oblast alone. While Kyiv does not regularly disclose the total number of casualties, that number has likely significantly increased in recent months.
In an interview with NBC published on Feb. 16, Zelensky said over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 380,000 injured on the battlefield.
Natalia Yermak
Ukraine 'lost contact' with F-16 during combat, pilot ejected, Air Force says
The Air Force "lost contact" with an F-16 jet during a mission to repel a Russian aerial attack overnight on May 16 following an emergency situation on board, the Air Force reported.
The pilot diverted the plane away from populated areas and ejected, after which he was found by a search and rescue team, according to the statement.
According to preliminary data, the F-16 pilot destroyed three Russian aerial targets and was attacking a fourth one with an aircraft cannon. Following an unspecified emergency, contact was lost at around 3:30 a.m., forcing the pilot to eject.
The Air Force did not provide further details on the plane's ultimate fate or its likely crash site.
"The pilot's condition is satisfactory, he is safe and his life and health are not in danger," the statement read.
Ukraine received its first U.S.-made fourth-generation F-16 jets from the Netherlands and Denmark in 2024, deploying them to counter Russian missile and drone attacks across Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force lost its first F-16 aircraft in a crash in August 2024, leading to the death of its pilot, Oleksii Mes. A second F-16 pilot, Pavlo Ivanov, was killed during a combat mission this April.
Anna Fratsyvir
Putin appoints general who led Mariupol assault as new Russian Ground Forces Commander
Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, who led the assault on Mariupol in 2022, as the Commander of the Russian Ground Forces, Russian state-controlled media reported on May 15.
The appointment comes amid media reports claiming that Russia is preparing a major new offensive in Ukraine despite ongoing peace efforts led by the U.S.
Mordvichev was a commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of Russia’s Southern Military District, which was heavily involved in the devastating 2022 siege of Mariupol which killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, according to Kyiv.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in September 2022 said that while stationed in Mariupol, Mordvichev reportedly met with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to approve plans for the final assault on the city, including the encirclement and storming of Azovstal, where Ukrainian troops and civilians were sheltering.
Under Mordvichev’s command, Russian troops carried out the destruction of civilian infrastructure and committed atrocities against both civilians and the Ukrainian military, the SBU said.
It also found that Mordvichev has been directly involved in other areas of Russia’s full-scale invasion, including the coordination of Russian forces in the Donetsk Oblast.
It was also reported that Putin personally praised him and awarded him the title of Hero of Russia for the capture of Avdiivka on March 28, 2024.
Mordvichev has been notified of suspicion under part 3 of Art. 110 (encroachment on Ukraine's territorial integrity and inviolability resulting in deaths and other grave consequences), part 2 of Art. 437 (waging an aggressive war), part 2 of Art. 28 (committing a crime by a group of individuals in prior conspiracy) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.
Mordvichev will replace General Oleg Saliukov, who was appointed as deputy secretary of the Security Council on May 15.
Saliukov, who turns 70 on May 21, had led Russia’s Ground Forces and the Moscow Garrison since 2014, according to Radio Liberty.
Known for overseeing annual Victory Day parades on Red Square from 2014 through 2025, he is currently under Western sanctions for his role in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
His retirement from active military service had been expected this month under Russian law, which mandates retirement at age 70 unless a special exemption is granted.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister, has headed the Security Council since May 2024 and now has several deputies, including Saliukov.
Martin Fornusek
Explosions rock occupied Crimea as drone attack reportedly sets Russian ammo depot on fire
A fire broke out at an ammunition depot in the village of Perevalne in Russian-occupied Crimea following a series of explosions during a drone attack on the morning of May 16, the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported, citing local residents.
The 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is said to be stationed near Perevalne. In response to the incident, authorities reportedly blocked the road connecting Simferopol and Alushta.
Crimean Wind shared footage taken by locals showing smoke rising from different locations across Crimea.
Explosions were also reported near the Belbek and Kacha military airfields in Sevastopol, as well as near Cape Fiolent, Balaklava, and Bakhchisarai.
"The loud sounds that were heard in the city are the work of our soldiers," claimed the Russian-installed proxy head of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev.
According to Razvozhayev, six drones were downed over the occupied peninsula. He did not report any damage or casualties due to the attack. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that as many as 21 drones were shot down over Crimea, as well as 43 in the Black Sea and one in Belgorod Oblast.
Ukraine has not officially commented on the reported strikes, and the Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.
Throughout Russia's all-out war, Ukraine has carried out several successful attacks against Russian targets in occupied Crimea and its vicinity, heavily degrading the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
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