Russia has a "real dilemma," U.S. President Joe Biden said on Aug. 13, seven days after Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast.
On the defensive side of the full-scale war for the first time, Moscow is in an unexpected bind.
"It's creating a real dilemma for (Russian) President Vladimir Putin," Biden told reporters in New Orleans, making his first public comments on the operation.
While Biden did not go into further detail about Russia's problems, he said his administration remains in "constant contact" with Ukraine.
The U.S. did not immediately rebuke Ukraine’s incursion into Russian soil, breaking with a longstanding policy of military caution towards nuclear-armed Russia. For years, fear of triggering escalation led Washington to drip-feed sophisticated weaponry to Kyiv, stalling Ukraine's ability to fight back.
Biden's remarks on Aug. 13 indicate the U.S. has no plans to condemn Ukraine's response. As the offensive in Kursk Oblast stretches into its second week, some Western officials are even encouraging the morale boost the incursion has set off in the country.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Aug. 12.
"Congratulations on Kursk," Blumenthal said to Zelensky. "Good work."
The Kursk incursion, Blumenthal said, is a seismic breakthrough, bringing promising news, potential, and the most hope he's seen in Kyiv in his half-dozen visits over the course of the war.
Graham, who has also visited Ukraine six times since the full-scale invasion began, said Ukraine should "keep it up." Along with calling the offensive "bold, brilliant, and beautiful," the senator had a message for Washington.
"To the administration, I appreciate your support, let these people fight," said Graham, who supports former President Donald Trump's reelection campaign.
"Give them weapons they need to win a war they cannot lose."
U.S. policy grants Ukraine limited use of American-supplied weapons within Russian territory. Following Russia's renewed assault against Kharkiv Oblast in May, Washington allowed Kyiv to use its weapons to strike Russian targets near the Ukrainian border. Kyiv seems to have learned this past week that this permission applies to the Kursk region as well.
Graham's appeal to the Biden administration suggests that Ukraine's incursion, in addition to catching Russia off guard, might also put pressure on Washington to further lift restrictions on U.S. weapons.
Initially, the White House met Ukraine's progress in the Kursk with silence. As the surprise operation neared its second week, the Pentagon said the cross-border incursion was consistent with U.S. policy.
"But make no mistake about it: This is Putin's war against Russia," U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Aug. 12.
"And if he doesn't like it, if it's making him a little uncomfortable, then there's an easy solution: He can just get the hell out of Ukraine and call it a day."
The fact that Russia has routinely launched attacks against Ukraine from Kursk Oblast could explain why there is no strong signal of disapproval from Washington. Another possibility is that some in the West may have known the Kursk shock was coming: Citing an unidentified Western official, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 13 that Ukraine had been strategizing a variety of attacks before launching the offensive.
Kurt Volker, the former U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations under Trump’s first presidency, told the Kyiv Independent he was surprised by the Kursk incursion and by Kirby's supportive response — both of which he sees as promising signs.
"It does a few things that are important in terms of people's perceptions," Volker said.
"Putin is now the only Russian leader since World War II to have provoked an invasion of Russia and to have lost Russian territory … people are going to notice that in Russia."
But for some in Kyiv, the senators' visit and Kirby's statements are only minor interruptions in Washington's overall silence.
When Ukraine escalates the war, not only does Russia not know how to respond but the West "does nothing," Tymofiy Mylovanov, a Ukrainian economist and advisor to Zelensky's administration, said on social media.
"Ukraine's offensive in Kursk demonstrates that Russia's nuclear threat is a bluff and renders the entire U.S. Biden administration's doctrine of de-escalation irrelevant," Mylovanov said.
With Congress on its August recess and less than 90 days until the U.S. presidential election, Washington has remained relatively quiet on Ukraine's incursion into Russia.
Ever since Biden dropped out of the race, his administration has not wanted to talk about Ukraine, Volker said. The president has instead focused on supporting his vice president, Kamala Harris, who now leads the Democratic ticket.
The Biden administration will seek to discuss Ukraine as little as possible in the coming months out of fear that the Trump campaign will accuse them of foreign policy failures should any unwelcome escalation occur, Volker said.
Trump himself seems to have softened his rhetoric toward Ukraine somewhat following the Kursk incursion. When Ukraine came up in a meandering conversation with billionaire Elon Musk on Aug. 12, Trump called Zelensky "very honorable" and expressed atypical sympathy.
"There's nobody that feels worse about the Ukraine situation than I do," Trump said.
For some Ukraine advocates, the November election presents an opportunity for a shift in U.S. policy. Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has been perceived as leading the current administration's fear of escalation with Russia, and some believe Phil Gordon, Sullivan's potential replacement under a Harris administration, might take a bolder approach.
Volker, who knows and has spoken with both Gordon and Sullivan, doesn't think policy toward Ukraine would change much if Harris and Gordon were to replace Biden and Sullivan.
The restrictions on American-supplied weapons will likely remain in place if Harris wins in November, Volker said.
Volker also believes that the intense focus on the election means that neither Sullivan nor Gordon is playing a leading role in what Harris or Biden say publicly.
Still, despite the relative quiet on Ukraine's offensive, some experts have said that Biden could use his final months in office to cement his foreign policy legacy in Ukraine. Without the pressures of reelection, Biden is free to make unpopular or polarizing decisions, including decisive action against Russia.
Russia, in the midst of its new dilemma, attempted to deflect blame at a United Nations Security Council meeting on Aug. 13, accusing Western countries of failing to condemn the Kursk incursion. The U.S. vehemently rejected Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine as the aggressor.
"There is no question as to which country has committed numerous, well-documented atrocities, including war crimes, and crimes against humanity on Ukraine's sovereign territory, devastating civilian infrastructure, destroying schools, hospitals and residential buildings, and forcibly transferring and deporting children. That country is Russia," the U.S. mission to the U.N. said in a statement.
"Our message to Russia's leadership and military who commit war crimes or other atrocities is this: This world is watching, and you will be held accountable."
Oleg Sukhov
