With a deal to transport Russian gas through Ukraine set to expire at the end of the year, Ukraine’s gas transit network could soon come under Russian attacks, warned Dmytro Lyppa, CEO of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, though the probability that gas transport is halted is “very low,” he said.
“We believe the risks of attacks on our facilities are significantly increasing with the suspension of transit,” said Lyppa on Dec. 4, speaking at the Energy Security Dialogue 2024 in Kyiv organised by the DiXi Group think tank. “We are taking all measures to ensure the security of our facilities.”
However, it is unlikely that the crisis Ukraine is experiencing in its energy sector due to large-scale attacks by Russia will be replicated in the gas sector, he added.
“We believe that the system is able to withstand quite significant loads in case of of certain events,” said Lyppa. “Let me remind you that a system was built for almost 150 billion cubic meters per year for transportation. We are currently still transporting 14-15, let's say,” said Lyppa.
“Let's put it this way: In order to stop this (flow), it would be a really apocalyptic scenario, but its probability is very low.”
Russia has continued to sell gas to Europe by transporting it via Ukraine’s network of gas pipelines under a 2019 agreement. The deal is set to expire at the end of the year, and Ukraine has repeatedly said it will not extend the deal.
The full-scale Russian invasion marked a turning point, forcing an unprecedented shift in Europe’s energy policy to reduce their dependence on Russia.
With European countries taking steps to diversify their energy sources, the Russia’s share of gas among EU natural gas imports dropped from 45% in 2021 to 15% last year.
Martin Fornusek
